Tesla’s Delivery Forecast is Bleak, with Expectations at All-Time Low

Tesla’s Delivery Forecast is Bleak, with Expectations at All-Time Low

You’re here (TSLA) releases first-quarter global delivery and production figures this week, with analysts and observers speculating that vehicle sales could fall to levels not seen in about a year as weak demand for electric vehicles has taken its toll. TSLA shares fell early Monday.


Once the first quarter is over, the Wall Street consensus currently calls for first-quarter deliveries of 457,000 units, according to FactSet. That number started last week at 471,000 and steadily declined before Tesla announced global delivery figures. The 457,000 figure likely includes several analyst forecasts that haven’t been updated in weeks or months.

Actual forecasts appear to be more around Tesla’s Q1 2023 figure of 422,875. The global electric vehicle giant hit a record 484,507 deliveries in Q4 2023. The previous record for quarterly deliveries was in Q2 with 466 140.

Tesla announced Friday that it had produced six million cars, leading some observers to increase production estimates for the first quarter.

The electric vehicle giant is expected to release its deliveries for the first quarter of 2024 on Tuesday. Last year, Tesla released first-quarter production and delivery figures on April 2.

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla bull, lowered his TSLA price target to 300 from 315 last week while calling the quarter a “nightmare” for Tesla. The analyst said he remains bullish on Tesla over the long term, despite “dark demand storm clouds forming in the near term.”

Ives expects deliveries of about 426,000 Teslas as the electric vehicle company has faced issues related to the upgrade of its Model 3 Highland in the United States as well as slowing sales in Europe. However, Ives noted that the “largest and most concerning issue for Tesla” is China, as “increasing electric vehicle competition and persistent price wars have made this key market very difficult for Tesla over the past year.” and especially this quarter.”

Ives wrote Wednesday that when Tesla announces its global deliveries, it won’t be a “celebrating moment for the bulls but rather a Band-Aid Quarter Tear for Tesla investors.”

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, another Tesla bull, cut his first-quarter shipment estimate to 425,000, down from 469,000 on Wednesday. Jonas also lowered its full-year shipment forecast to 1.95 million units.

Tesla China competes with Nio, Li Auto and XPeng up on March deliveries

Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi, who tends to be more bearish on TSLA, noted last week that Tesla experienced “weak” demand in China and Europe in the first quarter as well as “limited” production in the Model 3 in the United States. Sacconaghi cut his first-quarter shipment forecast from 490,000 units to 426,000, the same figure as Wedbush’s Ives.

However, Troy Teslike, a respected source of delivery estimates and Tesla data tracking among Tesla retail investors, the final estimate for the first quarter is 409,000 deliveries. Teslike predicts that Tesla produced 429,954 vehicles in the first quarter.

Tesla stock fell about 0.7% to 174.44 during the period. market action Monday.

EPS forecast for the full year, but for the second quarter?

With the first quarter over, analyst consensus now estimates that Tesla’s 2024 earnings are significantly below the 2023 level. This signals another year of declining earnings for this growth stock. Wall Street currently expects Tesla earnings per share to be just $2.87 in 2024, according to FactSet. That would represent an 8% decline from last year’s $3.12.

Wall Street consensus estimates for 2024 EPS for Tesla are now down nearly 25% since the end of 2023. Some analysts believe earnings could fall further, potentially around 2021 EPS of $2.26.

However, although first quarter deliveries are expected to be disappointing, Tesla’s business is expected to pick up in the second quarter with increased sales of the Model 3 and Cybertruck.

Wall Street currently expects deliveries of 510,000 units in the second quarter, according to FactSet. Troy Teslike estimates call for second-quarter deliveries totaling 460,000, which would be slightly lower than the second quarter of 2023. Teslike sees its Cybertruck deliveries doubling from just over 4,000 in the first quarter to 8,160 in the second quarter in the United States. Teslike also has Model 3 sales in the United States growing 70%. in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, as production improves.

Meanwhile, Tesla increased its prices in the United States for all versions of the Model Y on April 1. Tesla increased prices for European Model Y vehicles on March 22. In China, Tesla raised prices for its entire Model Y lineup by about $690 in April.

To maintain sales momentum in 2023 into 2024, Tesla has aggressively reduced vehicle prices and offered discounts. As a result, automotive gross margins, which peaked at 30% in the fourth quarter of 2021 amid an industry chip shortage, have fallen well below 20%.

Tesla continues to enjoy deep discounts on in-stock Model Y vehicles in the United States and other markets.

Tesla shares plunged in 2024, but at least it’s cheaper, right? No

Tesla Stock Performance

Last week, Tesla stock rose 2.9% to 175.79, posting a second consecutive weekly gain as the electric vehicle company began rolling out its latest Full Self-Driving (FSD) update to client. TSLA shares are trading slightly below the 50-day moving average.

Emails from CEO Elon Musk have been leaked on social media platforms, showing that he is making it mandatory in North America to install and activate the latest version of FSD on vehicles and that he is taking customers do a “short test drive before handing over the car”.

Tesla is also offering a free one-month trial of FSD in the United States for new purchases or existing FSD-enabled electric vehicles.

On March 15, Tesla stock fell 6.7% to 163.57, hitting new 2024 lows and levels not seen since May 2023. TSLA fell about 13% in March and is the the biggest loser in the S&P 500 index so far in 2024.

The electric vehicle giant ranks eighth in the 35-member IBD. Automotive Manufacturers Industry Group. The stock has a 33 Composite score on a best possible 99. Tesla stock also has an 11 Relative Strength Rating and a 67 EPS rating.

Please follow Kit Norton on X, formerly known as Twitter, @KitNorton for more coverage.


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