You’re here (TSLA) reports second-quarter global vehicle deliveries on Tuesday, with analysts expecting the total to be lower than the current consensus. However, as demand for electric vehicles slows in 2024 and AI fever dominates the market, some observers are focusing more on Tesla’s second-quarter energy storage numbers. TSLA shares rose early Monday.
↑
X
If Tesla is the most valuable automaker, why do hybrids outsell electric vehicles?
Analysts on Monday forecast Tesla’s global deliveries in the second quarter to total 436,000 vehicles, according to FactSet. The consensus in late May was for 448,000 deliveries. That figure has since fallen 3%.
The current estimate would be down 6.5% from last year’s 466,140 deliveries. But this would be an increase of 13% compared to the first quarter.
Tesla hit a record 484,507 deliveries in the fourth quarter of 2023. The company announced in early April that global deliveries in the first quarter totaled 386,810, beating even the lowest estimates and marking the start of the Lowest quarterly deliveries since 344,000 in the second quarter of 2022.
However, many analysts estimate that Tesla deliveries will be lower than 436,000. On Friday, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla buyer, wrote that deliveries are expected to come closer to that consensus number. He added that the “whispered numbers” are between 415,000 and 420,000.
Last week, New Street reported that it expected Tesla to deliver 425,000 units in the second quarter. At the same time, RBC Capital lowered its Tesla deliveries to 410,000 in the second quarter, a 23% drop from the company’s previous estimate of 533,000 vehicles.
Barclays also released an estimate of 415,000 units for Tesla in the second quarter last week. The company said it believed this estimate was “somewhat consistent with buyers’ more moderate expectations” and suspects the final consensus estimates compiled by Tesla will end up being lower.
Tesla’s Chinese rivals boost sales with new, cheaper models
Tesla shares gained 3.3% to 204.50 during market action Monday. Friday, TSLA rose 0.2% to 197.88.
What about Tesla Energy?
In addition to global delivery figures, Tesla also reports on Tuesday how much energy storage it deployed in the second quarter. The company deployed 4,053 megawatt hours (MWh) in the first quarter, a record level.
Tesla currently offers solar panels and a solar roof, as well as powerwalls for energy storage. On the commercial side, Tesla also offers the “megapack”.
Adam Jonas, a prominent auto analyst at Morgan Stanley, wrote last week that as generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) increases energy demand, Tesla’s energy business could be “particularly well positioned to benefit from investments in the U.S. electric grid accelerated by the AI boom.”
Jonas currently values Tesla Energy at $36 per Tesla share, or about $130 billion.
The analyst forecasts that Tesla Energy will generate about $7 billion in revenue this year, a 20% increase from 2023. Jonas also predicts that Tesla Energy’s margins will exceed the company’s automotive margins in 2024.
Chief Executive Elon Musk said at Tesla’s June 13 shareholder meeting that the company is “on track” for 200% to 300% year-over-year growth in energy storage and stationery pack deployment.
Towards autonomy and robotaxi
Meanwhile, Ives said Friday that he is already focused on the second half of 2024 and is watching demand recover, vehicle prices stabilize and the “robotaxi” reveal next month.
“We believe that Robotaxi Day on August 8 will be a key historic moment in Tesla’s history that we view as a near-term catalyst,” Ives wrote.
“The rubber meets the road as Street anticipates August 8 as a key day in Tesla history,” he added. “While next week’s delivery numbers are very strong, the Street is starting to focus on Tesla’s next growth engine, which is now forming with the worst demand slump in the rearview mirror.”
Tesla Stock Performance
Last week, Tesla shares jumped 8.1% to 197.88, breaking out from the 191.08 level. buy pointsaccording to MarketSurge Chart analysis. The buying range extends to 200.63.
The stock encountered resistance at the 40-week line on Friday, but closed higher. In June, shares gained more than 11%.
Tesla has recovered since its report first quarter results and turnover on April 23, finding support just above its 50-day moving average.
However, Tesla stock remains below a declining 200-day moving average.
Tesla shareholders recently voted in favor of giving Musk his $56 billion salary for 2018 and reincorporate the electric vehicle giant in Texas, moving it from Delaware.
With Tesla’s annual general meeting behind us, analysts are eagerly awaiting Tesla’s second-quarter results in mid-July. The company will also unveil its robotaxi on August 8.
Tesla stock ranks sixth in 35-member IBD rankings Industrial group of automobile manufacturers. The stock has a 56 Composite score on a best possible 99. Stocks have a 26 Relative resistance index and a 62 EPS rating.
Please follow Kit Norton on @KitNorton for more coverage.
YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE:
Get full access to IBD stock listings and ratings
Learn to select good actions? Read the investors’ corner
