Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of becoming the Democratic presidential nominee this year more than quadrupled Tuesday, according to traders at Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform that has seen meteoric growth during an election year.
“Yes” shares a contract The question of whether it will get the green light was trading at 31 cents in afternoon New York time, indicating the market saw a 31% chance of that happening, up from 7% earlier in the day. Shares retraced some gains and recently traded at 23 cents.
Each share pays out $1 (in USDC, a stablecoin or cryptocurrency pegged to the US dollar) if the prediction comes true, and $0 otherwise.
Officially, President Joe Biden is still the presumptive Democratic nominee. But many supporters are calling for him to step down, and some want Harris to take over after her boss resigns. questionable performance during last week’s debate with former commander in chief and almost certain Republican standard-bearer Donald J. Trump.
“We have to do everything we can to support her, whether she’s in second place or at the top of the ticket,” said Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C., said on television Tuesday.
A Newsweek op-ed by former Congressman Tim Ryan, the first presidential candidate to endorse Biden in 2020, was more direct: “Kamala Harris expected to be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024“A Wall Street Journal analysis titled Harris”Biden’s most likely replacement” . “
The trend was similar Tuesday on PredictIt, a more traditional prediction market platform where bets are settled in dollars rather than crypto. “Yes” shares for Harris there more than doubled at 35 cents. PredictIt’s investment volume on the question of who will win the Democratic nomination stands at $31 million, dwarfed by Polymarket’s at $75 million.
Under an agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Polymarket is not allowed to do business in the United States, while PredictIt is allowed to operate in the country under a regulatory exemption.
Tuesday was Polymarket’s fifth-highest volume day in its four-year history, with $5.7 million in transactions, according to data from Dune Analytics. June was the first month Polymarket saw more than 100 million dollars in volume.
His biggest deal by far, at $211 million in bets, is asking who will win the US presidency in NovemberTrump remains the favorite, with a 66% chance of victory.
Meanwhile, KAMA, a meme currency named after the vice president, rallied on Tuesdaywhose price more than doubled in 24 hours to reach $0.007815.
