Dow Jones futures open Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures, amid growing speculation that President Joe Biden may drop out of the race.
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Nasdaq Reverses After Hitting 18,000; Uber, JPMorgan and Hilton in brief
Biden to discuss future of campaign
President Biden will discuss the future of his re-election campaign with his family on Sunday at Camp David, NBC News reported Saturday, citing multiple sources. This comes after Thursday night’s presidential debate against Donald Trump, in which Biden gave a disastrous performance. This has raised concerns about his fitness for office, especially as he seeks a second four-year term. Senior Democrats have publicly expressed continued support, but many are privately worried.
Biden is “always engaged” from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. every day, White House advisers told Axios, with mistakes and fatigue more common at other times of the day.
Biden’s chances diminish
Biden’s chances of receiving the Democratic nomination fell to just 60% from 72% on Friday, down from 85% before the debate. Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of receiving the nomination increased to 24% from 13% on Friday. California Governor Gavin Newsom is at 14%, down slightly from Friday’s 17%.
Biden’s chances of winning the presidency are now down to 25%, down from 36% on Friday and 48% on Thursday before the debate. Donald Trump’s chances are 59%, little changed from Friday and 53% before the debate. Still, the chances of a GOP sweep have increased.
Growing odds of Donald Trump’s return to the presidency with a Republican-controlled Congress hurt shares of solar and hospital companies on Friday.
Trump’s debate victory gave the S&P 500 a boost. And then this is what happened.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures open Sunday at 6 p.m. ET, along with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures.
Remember that overnight action Dow Futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into real exchanges during the next regular class stock market session.
Stock market highlights
The stock market rally gave mixed signals last week. However, on a weekly basis, the major indices are showing tight action, with the Nasdaq power trend intact.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.1% last week. stock market trading After a strong start to the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% after both reversing their record highs from Friday morning.
The small-cap Russell 2000 index jumped 1.3%, returning to its 50-day line.
Looking at a weekly chart, the Nasdaq has shown no real weakness, rising in the last four weeks and nine of the last ten.
The Nasdaq is up 5.9% above its 50-day line, slightly extended even with sideways action over the past two weeks. A longer pause or slight pullback would likely be constructive, allowing stocks to recover and providing more room for further advance.
Meta-platforms (META), Amazon.com (AMZN) And You’re here (TSLA) broke out during the week, but met resistance on Friday. Nvidia (NVDA) stepped back but found his balance.
The software performed well last week, with AppLovin (APPLICATION), monday.com (MNDY) And ServiceNow (NOW) flashing buy signals.
Electric vehicle sales in China
Investors will be entitled to June and Second-quarter sales of Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers Nio (NIO), Li Auto (LI), XPeng (XPEV) And Zeekr (Z.K.) early Monday and perhaps the electric vehicle and battery giant BYD (I WILL).
Tesla and Rivian (RIVN) is expected to release its figures early Tuesday. Most automakers will also report their second-quarter U.S. sales on Tuesday.
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Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) fell 0.4% last week.
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (VAT) jumped 2.4%, its fourth consecutive strong weekly increase. ServiceNow and AppLovin shares are IGV holdings. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 1.6%, but has moved somewhat away from the lows. Nvidia stock is SMH’s dominant holding.
Reflecting more speculative stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (LEAF) rose 1.4% last week and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) fell 3.5%, returning to April lows. Tesla stock is the #1 stock in Ark Invest’s ETFs.
Time the Market with IBD’s ETF Market Strategy
Megacap stocks
Nvidia shares fell 2.4% on the week to 123.54. But after falling 6.7% on Monday, capping a three-day slide, the AI chip leader rebounded and settled above the 21-day moving average. NVDA shares could benefit from a longer break, forging a new base and letting the 50-day line catch up.
Meta shares rose 1.9% to 504.22. Shares hit 514.01 cup-with-handle The stock hit a buy point on Thursday, but fell nearly 3% on Friday. However, there are still a few early entries in the handle.
Amazon shares gained 2.2% to 193.25, topping 191.70 flat base point of purchase. Shares fell 2.3% on Friday.
Tesla shares jumped 8.1% to 197.88, breaking above the 191.08 buy point. The buy range extends to 200.63. TSLA shares hit resistance at the 40-week line on Friday, but closed higher.
Tesla’s big weekly gain came as several analysts cut their second-quarter shipment estimates ahead of the electric vehicle giant’s press release Tuesday.
Amazon has reached a major milestone in the Andy Jassy era. What’s next?
Software actions in the purchase areas
AppLovin stock jumped 5.9% on the week to 83.22, breaking through a tight trendline and a short-term high of 82.66 on Thursday, providing early entry. The official fixed-base buy point is 88.50, according to Market increase.
Monday.com stock jumped 7% last week to 240.76, bouncing off the 50-day line in a short, mini-double consolidation next to another base. The official point of purchase is 249. However, MNDY stock broke out of a trendline on Thursday. On Friday, the software maker tested a near-term high of 239.54, which roughly coincides with the buy point of the previous base of 239.22.
ServiceNow stock rose just over 5% to 787.19, breaking a trendline. Shares jumped 23% from the May 31 intraday low of 637.99. The official buy point is 815.32. Ideally, NOW stock should build a position.
Meanwhile, a number of software stocks are moving up from the bottom, trading in bases, while a few leaders are extending.
Investors could use IGV — whose chart looks a lot like ServiceNow — or other software ETFs to play this sector move.
Market Rally Analysis
There are many ways for active investors to profit from the current stock market rally.
A very active trader might have made many trades over the past two weeks, catching some winners while exiting a number of stocks that quickly faded amid mini-rotations. Other traders may have chosen to take little or no action based on the behavior of their existing positions.
The key is to find the investing style and rules that work for you.
Pay attention to market and sector developments. There are many software names that should be on your watch lists. And even though financial and industrial stocks have retreated, many stocks in these sectors are very close to being actionable.
The presidential race is a big unknown, with Biden’s performance in the debate and the fallout from it creating far more uncertainty months before Election Day.
Read The big picture every day to stay in tune with the direction of the market and the main values and sectors.
Nvidia, Amazon and Meta stocks are on MII classificationAmazon and Meta Stocks Are Rising SwingTraderShares of Nvidia, Monday.com and ServiceNow are up MII 50. AppLovin was Friday’s issue IBD Stock of the Day while Amazon stock was Thursday’s pick.
Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter on @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
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