BitcoinBitcoin’s price has fallen 1.35% over the past 24 hours, now sitting 16% below its all-time high of $73,835 reached on March 14. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has fallen 9.2%. This downward trend in June has left market analysts wondering whether Bitcoin has reached its “cycle peak.”
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, Underlines Several blockchain indicators indicate that Bitcoin has failed to reach new highs after two retests, which he interprets as a “sign of weakness.” Edwards highlighted the importance of Bitcoin’s long-term holder (LTH) inflation rate, which has been steadily increasing over the past two years.
According to Glassnode, this metric measures the annualized accumulation or distribution rates of Bitcoin holders relative to daily issuance to miners. At bull market peaks, market inflation typically exceeds the nominal threshold of 2.0, indicating a high probability of a cycle top. Currently, the LTH inflation rate stands at 1.9.
Another key metric, Bitcoin Dormancy Flow, has also increased over the past three months. This on-chain metric measures the number of coins spent relative to the overall trend. Glassnode data reveals that Bitcoin’s dormancy Z-score has increased significantly over the past 90 days. Edwards noted that this metric peaked in April 2024, indicating that the average age of coins spent has increased. Historically, peaks in the dormancy Z-score have preceded cycle highs by about three months.
Additionally, clusters and increasing spikes in spent volume could signal a market top. Edwards noted that sudden growth in Bitcoin spent volume over 7 to 10 years has historically signaled the end of a cycle. He pointed to a dramatic increase in Bitcoin on-chain movement in 2024. Edwards attributed some of this movement to defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox, which is preparing to repay its creditors over $9 billion worth of Bitcoin.
