Kamala Harris poised to lead Democrats, but what does that mean for Europe?
With former President Joe Biden stepping down from the race, Vice President Kamala Harris is set to lead the Democratic ticket in the upcoming presidential election. This shift has sparked curiosity across the globe, particularly in Europe, about how a Harris presidency could impact the transatlantic relationship. Although analysts anticipate a largely similar approach to Biden’s policies, they highlight subtle differences in international affairs, particularly surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Palestine conflict, and U.S.-China relations.
Key Takeaways:
- Continuity and subtle shifts: A Harris presidency is expected to offer continuity on foreign policy, with a gradual decline in military aid for Ukraine, a hawkish stance on China without immediate tariff threats, and continued efforts to balance support for Israel with Gaza conflict de-escalation. However, Harris is likely to emphasize humanitarian issues, as seen in her focus on the Gaza crisis.
- Bolder approach on Ukraine: While maintaining the "red lines" approach limiting U.S. aid, a Harris presidency might provide Ukraine with more means to push those limits, potentially leading to a more assertive stance towards Russia.
- Transatlantic convergence on trade and tech: EU-U.S. convergence on trade, AI, Big Tech, and climate policy is likely to continue under Harris, despite her prioritizing U.S. domestic concerns and potential conflicts over industrial policies.
- EU’s independent role: Europe is expected to continue its independent pursuit of its industrial policy, which may counter U.S. interests as much as China’s, even with a Harris presidency.
Ukraine, Israel and China: Navigating the Global Landscape
Francesco Nicoli, an assistant professor of political science at the Politecnico Institute of Turin, predicts a more assertive approach towards Ukraine under a Harris presidency. While not fundamentally altering the current "red lines" strategy, Harris might provide additional support to push those boundaries, allowing for a more proactive response to Russian aggression.
On Israel and Palestine, Nicoli acknowledges the EU’s preference for a negotiated solution and its willingness to defer to U.S. leadership in brokering a peace deal. While a Harris presidency might not significantly alter the transatlantic approach on this issue, the EU is expected to welcome any compromise agreement as long as it ends the current conflict.
Regarding China, Nicoli highlights the EU’s internal divisions and its inability to act as a credible partner for the U.S. in any situation short of a full-scale conflict with China. Europe is expected to remain cautious in its approach to China, enacting a piecemeal industrial policy that might appear anti-China in negotiations but could inadvertently counter U.S. interests as much as China’s.
Security Needs and Industrial Policies: A Transatlantic Balancing Act
Sudha David-Wilp, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, believes a Harris presidency would provide Europe with an opportunity to strengthen its defense capabilities and adapt to new realities in the U.S.-EU relationship. While acknowledging continuity in values and advisors, she underscores that Europe shouldn’t expect a full reversal of U.S. industrial policies or complete coverage of its security needs.
David-Wilp suggests that rather than criticizing the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, the EU should work cooperatively with the U.S. to protect supply chains from economic weaponization and invest in domestic research and development to drive innovation in areas like AI and green energy.
She anticipates a shift in priorities for Harris, who might prioritize China and address immediate crises in the Middle East and the U.S.-Mexico border, issues that carry more domestic political weight in the U.S.
A New Era: Challenges and Opportunities
The potential rise of Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee presents both challenges and opportunities for the transatlantic relationship. While continuity in some areas is expected, Harris’s leadership might bring subtle changes in the approach to key international issues, particularly in how the U.S. engages with Ukraine, the Israel-Palestine conflict, and China.
Europe is likely to navigate these changes with a combination of cautious optimism and strategic autonomy, seeking to strengthen its own defense capabilities, foster technological innovation, and maintain its independent industrial policy. Ultimately, the success of the transatlantic partnership under a Harris presidency will depend on a continued dialogue, shared responsibility, and a willingness to adapt to a constantly evolving global landscape.
