Kamala Harris Seen as More Likely to Win 2024 Election Than Donald Trump, CNBC Fed Survey Finds
For the first time in the 2024 election cycle, Vice President Kamala Harris is viewed as more likely than former President Donald Trump to win the U.S. presidential election, according to a CNBC Fed Survey released on Tuesday. This shift in sentiment comes after the first and possibly only debate between the two candidates, held on September 10th. Previously, the survey had favored Trump in both July and June, but the latest results show a significant change in the outlook for the election.
Key Takeaways:
- Harris is now the favorite: 48% of the survey respondents, including investment strategists, economists, and fund managers, believe Harris is more likely to win the election, compared to 41% who favor Trump.
- Debate impact: The survey was conducted shortly after the first and potentially only debate between Harris and Trump, suggesting a possible shift in sentiment in favor of Harris following the event.
- Economic concerns: The survey highlights the importance of the economy in voters’ minds. Although 56% of respondents believe a Trump presidency would be better for the stock market, 44% see Trump as a better candidate for the broader economy, compared to 41% for Harris.
- Policy differences: The survey delves into the potential impacts of each candidate’s economic policies. While Harris has focused on growing the middle class and lowering consumer costs, Trump has championed his first-term tax cuts and trade policies.
- Federal Reserve independence: The survey also raises concerns about the potential impact of Trump’s presidency on the Federal Reserve’s independence, with only 42% of respondents expecting him to respect the central bank’s autonomy compared to 100% who anticipate Harris doing so.
Harris’ Economic Platform and Trump’s Reheated Rhetoric
Since entering the race unopposed in late July, Harris’ campaign has focused on fleshing out her economic platform, which centers around growing the middle class and lowering consumer costs. Key elements include:
- Housing subsidies: Harris has proposed providing financial assistance to individuals and families struggling to afford housing.
- Tax credit and deduction expansions: She is advocating for expanding existing tax benefits and introducing new ones to help lower- and middle-income earners.
- Corporate price gouging crackdown: Harris plans to take a firm stance against what she sees as abusive price increases by corporations to maximize profits.
Meanwhile, Trump continues to champion his first-term economic policies, including:
- Tax cut extension and deepening: Trump has pledged to extend and potentially expand the tax cuts he signed into law in 2017.
- Hardline tariff policy: He has remained committed to his protectionist approach to international trade, proposing to impose tariffs on all imports.
- Infrastructure investments rollback: Trump has criticized some of the Biden administration’s infrastructure investments and hinted at potentially reversing them.
Economic Concerns and Potential for Divided Government
The CNBC Fed Survey reveals that the presidential election is considered the sixth most concerning risk to the U.S. economy, emphasizing the strong link between the election outcome and economic prospects.
While respondents anticipate a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, they also express concern about the potential for the Fed to act too late or too little in addressing economic challenges. This anxiety underscores the significant impact of monetary policy on the economy and the need for effective policy decisions from the central bank.
The survey suggests a possible scenario of divided government with the president having limited control over the legislative agenda. Some respondents view this as a potential positive, believing it could mitigate the risks associated with the economic policies proposed by both candidates. This raises the crucial question of the potential impact of divided governance on the economic and political landscape of the country.
Beyond Economics: The Broader Impact of the Election
The survey also probes beyond purely economic issues, examining the candidates’ potential impact on the country as a whole. A significant majority of respondents (52%) believe Harris would be better for the United States overall, while only 37% see Trump as the better choice. This suggests that voters consider factors beyond economic policies when casting their ballots.
However, the survey also highlights the potential concerns about Trump’s policies on immigration, with respondents expressing concerns about the impact of his proposed deportation policies on inflation and the economy. The survey’s findings underscore the importance of immigration as a crucial issue for voters, especially in light of its potential impact on the U.S. workforce and economy.
Looking Ahead: The Race to November 5th
With the election just under 50 days away, the CNBC Fed Survey provides a snapshot of the current political landscape and the economic concerns driving voters’ decisions. While the survey indicates a shift in favor of Harris, the race remains tight, and the final outcome could be influenced by a range of factors, including policy proposals, debate performances, and unforeseen events.
The survey highlights the importance of economic policies in the election, but also reminds us that voters consider a broader range of issues, including social values and leadership qualities, when choosing their candidate. The next few weeks will be crucial for both candidates as they seek to persuade voters and secure victory in the November 5th election.
