Vice President Kamala Harris Rises in Polls, Shifting 2024 Presidential Race
A significant shift has occurred in the 2024 presidential race as Vice President Kamala Harris has gained momentum and surged ahead of former President Donald Trump in a new NBC News poll. The poll, conducted just over six weeks before Election Day, shows Harris with a 5-point lead over Trump, 49% to 44%, among registered voters. While this result is within the margin of error, it represents a dramatic change from July’s poll where Trump held a 2-point lead.
Key Takeaways:
- Harris’ popularity has surged: The poll reveals a remarkable 16-point increase in Harris’ favorability since July, marking the largest shift for any politician in NBC News polling since the 9/11 terrorist attacks significantly boosted then-President George W. Bush’s standing.
- Harris leads on key attributes: Harris has gained an advantage over Trump in terms of being perceived as competent, effective, and possessing the necessary mental and physical health to be president. This is a reversal from the previous poll where Trump led on these qualities when facing Joe Biden.
- Voters see Harris as change: In a contest between a sitting vice president and an ex-president, particularly with a large portion of the electorate believing the country is "on the wrong track," Harris is seen as the candidate better representing change and the ability to steer the country towards a better path.
- Trump still holds ground on key issues: Trump maintains leads on the economy and inflation, although these margins are smaller than when Biden was in the race. While voters are deeply concerned about the cost of living and their family’s income falling behind, their perception of these issues continues to favor Trump.
Harris Leads on Abortion, Fitness, and Change; Trump Ahead on Border Security and Inflation
The NBC News poll further examines public perception of Harris and Trump on various issues and presidential qualities.
Harris enjoys significant leads on protecting immigrant rights, abortion, possessing necessary mental and physical health to be president, having the right temperament, and representing change.
Trump’s biggest leads lie in securing the border, the economy, and dealing with the cost of living. However, it is noteworthy that these leads have shrunk compared to when Biden was in the contest.
A Historic Jump in Harris’ Popularity
The dramatic increase in Harris’ popularity since she became the Democratic nominee is unprecedented in the history of the NBC News poll.
Harris has gained a net rating of +3, with 48% having a positive view of her and 45% having a negative view. This is in stark contrast to her July rating of -18, almost identical to Biden’s.
No major-party presidential candidate in the 35-year history of the NBC News poll has experienced such a significant jump in popularity during an election. The only increases exceeding Harris’ are George W. Bush’s post-9/11 surge, George H.W. Bush’s popularity rise after the first Gulf War, and independent Ross Perot’s bump after re-entering the 1992 race. Trump’s net rating, on the other hand, remains virtually unchanged from July at -13.
Warning Signs for Harris
Despite the dramatic improvement for Harris, the poll reveals some potential challenges for Democrats. The high levels of concern regarding inflation and the cost of living are still top of mind for voters. Furthermore, while Harris leads Trump on "change," 40% of voters express concern that she will continue Biden’s approach, highlighting a potential vulnerability for the Democratic ticket.
A significant majority of voters (65%) believe the country is "on the wrong track," a sentiment closely mirroring the voter mood during the 2016 and 2020 elections when they opted for a change in party control.
Other Poll Findings
The NBC News poll assesses public reaction to the recent debate between Harris and Trump, revealing that 29% of voters felt more likely to support Harris after the showdown, compared to 12% who felt more inclined to back Trump. The remaining 57% reported the debate had no impact on their voting preferences.
On the crucial issue of Congressional control, the poll shows a tight race with 48% of voters favoring a Democrat-controlled Congress and 46% supporting a Republican-controlled Congress. This is largely unchanged from July, when the numbers were similarly close.
Regarding "Project 2025", the conservative policy blueprint linked to former Trump administration officials and frequently used by Democrats in their campaign, the poll indicates that a decisive 57% of voters have a negative view of the project, while only 4% hold a positive view.
Conclusion
This NBC News poll presents a significant shift in the 2024 presidential election. While Harris has gained momentum and leads Trump in the polls, the electorate remains concerned about the economy and the cost of living, issues that continue to favor Trump. With just over six weeks to go until Election Day, the race remains tight, and the final outcome remains uncertain. The poll highlights the importance of these issues in determining the electorate’s decision, emphasizing the fluidity of the current race and the intense campaigning likely to ensue in the coming weeks.
