Evening update: Expect higher chances of showers and storms tonight, with continued risk on Monday

Evening update: Expect higher chances of showers and storms tonight, with continued risk on Monday

Areas south and southwest of D.C. have the highest chance of a shower or storm before sunset today. Rain chances rise tonight and remain for at least the first half of the workweek, a pattern that has been looming since our Friday morning forecast.

Because of a quasi-stationary front in the region, we’ll have low confidence in aspects of the forecast for the next few days, so readers may want to check back often for updates on storms’ timing, intensity and amount of rain expected.

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Through tonight: Clouds will increase as shower and storm chances move closer to town from the south and southwest. A wave or more of rain, along with average-strength storms, have a better chance of moving in after midnight. We could also see some patchy fog. Temperatures cool to the upper 40s to low 50s.

View The Washington Post current weather.

Tomorrow (Monday): We’ll be dodging some rain. Showers, a quick downpour and even steady rain are possible in the morning. Midday and into the afternoon, we could see at least one round of thunderstorms and rambunctious showers move through. Hail and gusty winds are possible, especially south and west of town:

Assuming, with fairly high confidence, that we don’t see much sunshine, temperatures in most of the region will top out near 60 to mid-60s. Overnight, showers, storms and a downpour remain possible. While there may be an early-evening lull, timing remains low confidence. Consider having rain gear handy to reduce the risk of being caught off-guard. Low temperatures may fall into the mid-to-upper 40s since we think our “dancing” frontal boundary stays south of us.

See Molly Robey’s forecast that runs through midweek. Come chat tonight on YouTube, Facebook, Instagram and X! Our 20-minute weekly Sunday Sunset Live Q&A will start at 7:31 p.m.

Severe weather remains slightly possible early this week

Let’s take a brief look at the potential early this week for severe storms and flooding. As you saw, above, Monday and Monday night have a slight chance of severe weather but a larger area may face a threat Tuesday and Tuesday night:

We still think severe weather may be limited, but it’s worth watching this threat — especially on Tuesday itself. Along with other storm impacts, rain could reach downpour intensity, with a very moist atmosphere over us for a few days:

Luckily, our storms may not fully or rapidly access all available moisture. The threat for flooding currently looks limited for our region — but worth monitoring along with the other severe weather threats:

So while the overall threat for severe weather and flooding remains slight, we must admit low confidence at pegging the exact movement of this slow-moving and roving frontal boundary in our region — it’s the determining factor for much if not all of the forecast in the coming days. We’ll be watching it and hoping to stay north of it.

We’ll dive into the entirety of workweek weather in our weekly Sunday Sunset Live Q&A on YouTube, Facebook, Instagram and X! Our 20-minute chat will start at 7:31 p.m.

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