Tesla‘s (TSLA) China rivals are expected to further accelerate in June as government subsidies boost sales of electric cars. EV stock Nio (NIO) appears on track to double sales in the second quarter, while its new and more affordable Model Y rival looms.
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A smoother road awaits China’s electric vehicle makers given the subsidies and improving consumer demand, the South China Morning Post recently reported. That follows a BYD (BYDDF)-led price war in the first half of 2024, which hurt EV startups Nio, XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI).
Chinese EV and battery giant BYD, new IPO Zeekr (ZK) and others are likely to report June and Q2 sales on Monday. Tesla will likely release global deliveries on Tuesday.
Tesla Archrival BYD Sales
BYD’s Q2 tally has already surpassed Q1’s sales of 612,315 units. The EV giant sold 331,817 cars in May and 313,245 in April. It’s possible that June’s tally could break December’s record of 341,043. It’s conceivable that BYD could sell one million EVs in Q2, a level that it’s likely to clear in the third quarter.
The robust Q2 tally reflects deep discounts. Since February, Warren Buffett-backed BYD has lowered prices of nearly all its cars by 5% to 20%.
BYD sells fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). In 2023, BYD sold slightly more BEVs than PHEVs. This year, PHEVs have taken the lead, reflecting a global shift toward hybrids. In late May, BYD rolled out a more advanced hybrid system with a greatly extended range. Demand for BYD’s first two PHEVs with the new system reportedly has been very strong.
Meanwhile, overseas sales represent a growing share of BYD’s EV sales.
BYD stock is up modestly in 2024, a rare EV stock in positive territory. Shares fell 1.8% to 29.50 in last week’s stock market action, but just regained the 21-day line on Friday. Shares of Tesla’s No. 1 rival recovered the 50-day and 200-day moving averages in late May. They remain above those levels near June’s end.
EV Stock Li Auto Sales
EV startup Li Auto has guided Q2 deliveries of 105,000 to 110,000 electric vehicles. That would be up sharply from 80,400 EV deliveries in Q1.
Li Auto delivered 35,020 EVs in May and 25,787 in April. Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect Li Auto to deliver 46,000 EVs in June, putting the Q2 tally in line with guidance.
Sales of the cheaper, smaller L6 SUV are key. Li Auto’s L-series models are all extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs), essentially a form of plug-in hybrid. The China startup also sells the Mega minivan, its first BEV. Mega sales have been sluggish.
Li Auto stock rose 1 cent to 17.88 last week, wiping out solid gains earlier in the week. The once-hot EV stock has lost more than half its value year-to-date and is trading around its worst levels since late 2022.
Nio EV Sales
The one-time “Tesla of China” has guided Q2 deliveries of 54,000 to 56,000 electric vehicles, more than doubling year over year. That would also be nearly double the 30,053 EVs delivered in Q1.
Nio delivered 20,544 EVs in May and 15,620 in April. Deutsche Bank expects Nio to deliver 18,200 EVs in June, which would mean a Q2 tally in line with guidance.
Analysts say lower costs for Nio’s battery rental service are helping to juice its Q2 EV sales. In May, Nio also launched the Onvo L60 EV, which undercuts the Tesla Model Y in price by 12%. Sales are set to begin in September. Nio calls the Onvo its new, mainstream sub-brand.
Shares sank 3.3% to 4.16 in the past week. Like Li Auto, Nio stock has more than halved year-to-date.
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Laggard EV Stock XPeng Sales
Embattled startup XPeng has guided Q2 deliveries of 29,000 to 32,000 electric vehicles. That would be up nicely from 21,821 in Q1.
XPeng delivered 10,146 EVs in May and 9,393 EVs in April. Deutsche Bank expects XPeng to deliver 10,000 EVs in June, meaning the Q2 tally would meet guidance.
The Nio and Li Auto rival has especially struggled to keep pace amid China’s EV price wars. It’s counting on a more affordable sub-brand, called Mona, to reverse those woes.
On June 11, XPeng unveiled the M03 sedan, the first model from the new Mona brand. The electric sedan, seen as a Model 3 rival, is expected to launch in the third quarter.
XPeng stock sank 5.2% for the week to 7.33. The laggard China EV stock has nearly halved year-to-date.
New IPO Zeekr Sales
The new issue has not given Q2 delivery guidance.
But Zeekr delivered 18,616 EVs in May and 16,089 in April. That means its Q2 tally is already above Q1’s 33,059. Deutsche Bank expects it to deliver 20,000 EVs in June.
Zeekr listed shares in the U.S. market in May. It’s been an EV player in China since early 2021. China giant Geely founded the EV startup to fend off Tesla, Nio and others.
Its growing sales will be closely watched by Tesla stock investors. The Zeekr 001 model, a Model 3 rival, marked a milestone 200,000th delivery in June. Zeekr also has a vanlike model, called the Mix, in the works.
Shares of Zeekr tumbled 11% to 18.84 last week, hitting record lows Friday. Zeekr stock has fallen below the $21 IPO price.
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