With just weeks until Election Day, the political landscape remains intensely competitive. The newly released CNBC All-America Economic Survey reveals a statistically deadlocked presidential race, with former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris essentially tied both nationally and in crucial battleground states. While the overall numbers show a tight contest, a deeper dive into the data reveals significant divisions among key voter demographics and their priorities, painting a complex picture of the election’s final stretch.
Key Takeaways: A Nation Divided
- Statistical Dead Heat: The race is incredibly close, with Trump and Harris virtually tied nationally and in key battleground states, according to the CNBC survey.
- Economic Anxiety Reigns Supreme: Economic issues, particularly inflation and the overall state of the economy, remain the dominant concerns for voters.
- Trump’s Economic Strength: Trump holds a significant advantage among voters prioritizing economic issues like inflation, and the economy, suggesting that economic anxieties could be a major factor in the election’s outcome
- Harris’s Social Issues Advantage: Harris maintains a lead on secondary but still important issues such as abortion, climate change, and healthcare, demonstrating a clear divergence in voter priorities.
- Shifting Demographics: The survey highlights a widening partisan divide across gender, race, income and education, with noteworthy shifts among different demographic groups since the last poll.
Trump’s Improved Favorability and Economic Appeal
The CNBC survey shows a surprisingly narrow margin between Trump and Harris, nationally showing Trump with a 48%-46% edge, and a similar 48%-47% lead in the seven battleground states. This is within the margin of error, emphasizing the uncertainty of the final outcome. Crucially, **economic issues**, particularly **inflation**, continue to dominate voter concerns. Trump enjoys commanding leads among those prioritizing inflation, the economy, and middle-class issues. A significant 42% of voters believe they would be better off financially under a Trump presidency, compared to just 24% who feel the same about Harris.
Drilling Down on Economic Anxiety
The persistent concern over inflation is striking. Even with official data suggesting a slowdown in inflation, 45% of respondents believe prices are rising faster than previously. This demonstrates a disconnect between perceived economic reality and official statistics, highlighting the power of perception in shaping voter choices. Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research, the Democratic pollster for the survey, noted, “Even as the data show inflation has theoretically been slowing down, it has become more important in people’s minds over the course of the last three quarters, not less important.“
Beyond Economics: Trump’s Strength on Social Issues
Trump also demonstrates strength on issues other than the economy specifically maintaining a substantial 35-point advantage among voters most concerned about immigration and a 19-point lead on crime and safety. These areas clearly resonate with a significant portion of the electorate, further complicating the electoral picture for Harris.
Harris’s Strengths and the Battleground States
While Trump dominates on economic concerns, Harris demonstrates strength in other areas deemed important to many voters. She holds significant advantages among those prioritizing abortion rights (31 points), protecting democracy (9 points), healthcare (8 points), and climate change (a commanding 60-point lead). This underscores the diversity of voter priorities and the challenges in predicting the outcome of the closely contested election.
The Importance of Second-Tier Issues
The question becomes whether Harris’s leads on these “second-tier” issues, though substantial, can offset her deficits on prominent economic concerns. The survey further highlights a near-tie on who would better bring positive change to the nation, illustrating the closeness and difficulty in predicting the actual results.
Character and Favorability: A Close Contest
The intensely close nature of the race underscores the role of candidate perception. Harris leads by 13 points on who possesses better mental and physical health to be president and leads by 10 points on honesty and trustworthiness. However, Trump significantly improved in both these categories from a prior September NBC poll. His net favorability rating, though still negative, improved from -13 in August to -6 in this survey, representing a notable shift in his reputation, possibly signaling a narrowing of the gap surrounding the question of his fitness for office. Harris, despite still having negative favorability, improved as well, but less prominently.
Deepening Divides: Gender, Race, and Socioeconomic Status
The CNBC survey reflects deep partisan divides across demographic lines. While the gender gap remains significant, Trump’s +17 support among men exceeds Harris’ +12 lead among women, indicating broader trends in voter preferences beyond simple gender differences. This is further broken down by age in younger and older demographic groups in the survey. Harris maintains a strong lead among voters of color (27 points nationally), but this is down 10 points compared to August, possibly pointing to changing trends among these demographic groups This highlights the significant task facing the two candidates to garner a much needed additional percentage of the vote before Election Day.
Economic Divisions and Educational Gaps
The economic divide is also striking. Trump improved amidst low-income and less-educated voters, while Harris performed better among middle and upper-class voters, and this gap shows the difference in which groups candidates are focusing on in order to garner enough support and win a presidential election. Micah Roberts, the Republican pollster for the survey, emphasizes this split, noting, “**Trump’s advantage is because he’s winning men by more than he’s losing women. It’s a difference because of younger men, and the advantage among younger men is strong, and it’s just not as strong for Harris among younger women, and older women especially.**”
Inflation’s Lingering Impact and Economic Outlook
Despite the official decline in inflation, a concerning 75% of Americans say prices are still rising, with nearly half of them (45%) claiming prices are rising at a faster pace compared to before. Only a minority, 16% say prices remained the same. This perception of inflation is possibly playing a big role in how voters are casting their votes and what candidates they are supporting in the election.
A Glimmer of Optimism?
Despite prevailing economic anxieties, a significant portion of the population –37%– remain optimistic about the economy’s potential improvement in the coming year. This represents the highest level of optimism in over three years, possibly reflecting hopes tied to election outcomes rather than concrete economic indicators.
In conclusion, the CNBC All-America Economic Survey paints a picture of a highly competitive and unpredictable presidential race. While economic anxiety fuels much of the election battle, secondary social and cultural issues also play significant roles. The coming weeks will undoubtedly yield further insight into the final shifts in these key demographic groups.
