Taiwan Faces Uncertain Future as US Election Looms, Accelerating Defense Efforts
Taiwan is facing mounting pressure to bolster its defenses against an increasingly assertive China, with the upcoming US presidential election casting a shadow of uncertainty over the island’s future. Analysts warn that Taiwan’s security posture will be subject to the whims of the new US administration, regardless of who wins.
Key Takeaways:
- Trump’s unpredictability: Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House presents significant uncertainty for Taiwan. While he has championed a tough stance against China in the past, his transactional approach to foreign relations, including his suggestion that Taiwan should pay for US defense, has raised concerns about potential instability.
- Harris’ unknown: Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is expected to continue Biden’s relatively consistent approach to Taiwan, but her lack of extensive foreign policy experience compared to Biden adds another layer of uncertainty.
- Taiwan’s proactive defense: Faced with these uncertainties, Taiwan is accelerating its efforts to build up its own deterrence capabilities. This includes substantial increases in defense spending, bolstering its military with the latest US weaponry, and extending mandatory military service.
‘Unpredictable’ Trump and the Question of Taiwan’s Security
Trump’s candidacy has been marked by a history of unpredictable actions when it comes to Taiwan. His initial direct communication with Taiwan’s president, a first in decades for a US president, was followed by his suggestion that the US might change its "one China" policy. However, he later walked back this position in a call with Xi Jinping, the Chinese president.
Trump’s tough stance on China has led many in Taiwan to hope for strong support, but his "myopic and transactional approach" to foreign relations has also caused apprehension. Muhammad Faizal, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, notes that Taiwan fears being caught in the crosshairs of Trump’s unpredictable geopolitical maneuvers.
Harris’ Statecraft and Possible Continuity with Biden
Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is expected to maintain a more consistent policy toward Taiwan, mirroring Biden’s approach. Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, sees Harris’ foreign policy as a continuation of trends established over the past decades.
However, Dewardric McNeal, managing director and senior policy analyst at Longview Global, emphasizes that Harris, despite her experience as Vice President, lacks Biden’s extensive foreign policy track record. Her first 100 days in office, if she wins, will be closely watched by Beijing.
Taiwan’s Enhanced Defense Measures: A Response to Uncertainty
Analysts agree that Taiwan feels increasing pressure to bolster its own defense capabilities, regardless of the US election outcome. Taiwan’s efforts to build up its deterrence have already gained momentum since the election of Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s current president, in January, a process accelerated by the US election.
Lai has emphasized the need for alignment with democracies and a strengthening of Taiwan’s defense, and his presidency has seen the implementation of a one-year mandatory military service for men. Taiwan is also raising its defense budget, which has reached 2.6% of GDP this year, with further increases anticipated in 2025.
The island has been actively seeking more weapons from the US, but faces a backlog of already-purchased equipment worth an estimated $19 billion. Despite this, US lawmakers have recently assured Taiwan that weapons and financial support are on the way.
Taiwan’s Defense Dilemma: Balancing Security Concerns with Limited Resources
Taiwan’s defense strategy faces a daunting challenge, with China investing significantly more in its military, boasting a defense budget twelve times higher than Taiwan’s. The uncertainties surrounding the US election have only amplified the sense of anxiety in Taiwan.
Kwei-Bo Huang, professor of diplomacy at National ChengChi University, highlighted the disquiet felt in Taiwan, suggesting that another Trump administration might push Taiwan to further increase its defense spending to 3% of GDP.
Lu-Chung Weng, a political science professor at Sam Houston State University, notes that while the US election pressure is significant, it might ultimately benefit Taiwan by forcing it to face uncomfortable realities and to strengthen its defenses. He acknowledges, however, that closing the gap in military capabilities between Taiwan and China remains a formidable challenge.
The upcoming US election will have profound implications for Taiwan’s security, casting a long shadow over the island’s efforts to secure its future. Both candidates present unique challenges and uncertainties, compelling Taiwan to proactively strengthen its defense capabilities in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.
