As tensions between Iran and Israel escalate dramatically, Iran is reportedly turning to its key ally, Russia, for crucial military assistance. The conflict, fueled by ongoing indirect fighting between Iran and Israel through proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, has left Iran vulnerable and seeking advanced air defense capabilities and military intelligence to counter potential direct attacks. While Russia is positioned to provide this support, the extent of its commitment and the potential implications for regional stability remain significant points of global concern.
Key Takeaways: Iran’s Plea for Russian Military Aid
- Escalating Conflict: Iran is facing increased pressure from Israel following significant military actions in Gaza and Lebanon.
- Russia’s Support: Iran is seeking advanced air defense systems and military intelligence from Russia, but the extent of Russian support remains unclear.
- Strategic Implications: Russia’s response will carry far-reaching ramifications for its relationship with Iran, its other global partners (including China), and the existing power dynamics in the Middle East.
- Limited Intervention: Russia is unlikely to directly intervene militarily on Iran’s behalf given its significant involvement and resource constraints in the Ukraine war.
- Deepening Alliance: Despite the uncertainty regarding the full extent of aid, the situation underscores the deepening strategic alliance between Russia and Iran, propelled by shared antipathy towards the U.S. and a desire for a “new world order.”
The Growing Russia-Iran Military Partnership
The relationship between Russia and Iran has significantly deepened, particularly since the start of the war in Ukraine. Iran has been described by the U.S. as Russia’s “top military backer,” a claim both countries deny outright, although the transfer of Iranian drones to Russia before the war began is acknowledged by Tehran.
Arms Transfers and Military Cooperation
Reports suggest Iran is seeking to acquire sophisticated Russian air defense systems and various combat aircraft, including Su-35 fighter jets, Yak-130 training aircraft, and Mi-28 attack helicopters. While some deliveries, such as the Yak-130s, have occurred, the full extent of these arms transfers remains unclear and contested by both Russia and Iran. This ongoing military cooperation, however, solidifies the nature of their alliance moving toward unprecedented cooperation.
According to Karim Sadjadpour and Nicole Grajewski from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “the provision of Iranian drones and, more recently, missiles to Russia for its campaign in Ukraine marked a significant evolution in the Russia-Iran relationship. The war itself served as an accelerant to the already burgeoning Russia-Iran ties, propelling their cooperation to new heights.” This highlights the complex interplay between the conflict in Ukraine and the strengthening military ties between Moscow and Tehran.
In 2022, National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby described the evolving relationship as a “full-fledged defense partnership” that posed a significant threat to regional stability. He emphasized that Russia’s unprecedented level of military and technical support to Iran was transforming their alliance into a far-reaching endeavor.
Repercussions of the Israel-Iran Conflict
The recent and ongoing intense Israeli military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, targeting Iranian-backed groups, have placed considerable strain on Iran. The weakening of Hamas and Hezbollah, following the deaths of their key leaders, has undoubtedly prompted Iran’s urgent search for enhanced defensive capabilities.
The “Axis of Resistance” Under Pressure
Tehran supports and provides strategic backing to groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis in Yemen – entities it refers to collectively as the “Axis of Resistance.” This coalition exists to counter the influence of Israel and the United States in the region. The weakening of this “Axis of Resistance” directly impacts Iran’s regional strategy.
The Israeli actions have exposed vulnerabilities within the Iranian sphere of influence, highlighting the necessity for Iran to seek both enhanced defensive capabilities but also intelligence to prepare for further Israeli strikes.
Russia’s Calculations: Weighing Risks and Rewards
While Russia is well-positioned to provide Iran with the crucial military equipment and intelligence it seeks, its willingness to do so is not without significant considerations. The ongoing war in Ukraine demands enormous resources and manpower, leaving Russia with limited capacity for large scale military intervention.
Limited Military Intervention: A Calculated Risk
Bilal Y. Saab from Chatham House highlighted that Russia is unlikely to directly intervene in a conflict between Iran and Israel. He explains that given Russia’s significant involvement in Ukraine, a direct response would be “too bogged down in Ukraine” and “too risky of a game to go against the United States.” While a significant portion of military aid is expected from Russia, direct intervention, according to Saab, is highly improbable.
Nikita Smagin, an Iran expert with the Russian International Affairs Council, echoed similar sentiments, stating that Moscow prefers to adapt to the situation rather than become directly involved. He argues that Russia’s ability to aid Iran would be limited even indirectly, primarily stating that Russia “cannot—and will not—save Iran in its confrontation with Israel and the United States.”
Smagin further emphasizes that any indirect efforts such as supplying weapons to Iranian proxy groups would only be considered if such deliveries ultimately harm the United States instead of Israel. This points to a key political consideration: Russia’s strategic goals beyond simply strengthening Iran.
Balancing Regional Interests
Russia is acutely aware of its interests in the Middle East, maintaining relatively good relations with both Iran and Israel in addition to strengthening ties with other regional power brokers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran’s proxies, however, threatens Russia’s position, in some way or other. The October 3rd bombing of Iranian forces near the Khmeimim Air Base in Syria was a prime example of this.
The BRICS Summit and Potential “Strategic Partnership Agreement”
The upcoming meeting between Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia could provide more clarity on the deepening economic and strategic cooperation between the two countries. Speculation is that a “strategic partnership agreement,” whose negotiations began in early 2022, might finally be finalized. The details of this agreement, however, remain shrouded in speculation, adding another layer of uncertainty to the evolving regional dynamics.
