CNBC CFO Survey Predicts Kamala Harris Victory, Despite Economic Concerns
A new CNBC survey reveals a surprising shift in the sentiment among top corporate executives regarding the upcoming presidential election. While public polls show a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, a majority of chief financial officers (CFOs) now believe Harris is more likely to win. This prediction comes despite a significant portion of these same CFOs expressing greater confidence in Trump’s economic policies. This unexpected divergence offers a compelling glimpse into the complex interplay between corporate expectations and the broader political landscape.
Key Takeaways: A Surprising Shift in Corporate America
- Majority of CFOs Predict a Harris Victory: A significant 55% of CFOs surveyed believe Kamala Harris will win the presidency, a marked reversal from previous surveys.
- Economic Concerns Reign Supreme: Despite favoring Harris for the presidency, a majority (55%) of CFOs believe Donald Trump offers a better economic plan, highlighting the deep economic anxieties within the corporate sector.
- Inflation and Interest Rates Top the Agenda: CFOs overwhelmingly identified inflation and interest rates (38%) as their top concern, surpassing tax policy and regulatory issues.
- Divided Government Expected: Nearly three-quarters (74%) of CFOs anticipate a divided government after the election, regardless of who wins the presidency.
- Harris’s Economic Blueprint Takes Center Stage: The release of Harris’s detailed economic plan, coupled with Mark Cuban’s endorsement, indicates a strategic attempt to solidify her economic credentials within corporate America.
Corporate America Bets on Harris Despite Economic Preferences
The CNBC CFO Council Survey, conducted between August 19th and September 19th, polled 31 chief financial officers from large organizations. The results paint a fascinating picture: a majority of respondents believe
This prediction adds to the growing sentiment captured in another recent CNBC survey of economists and money managers that also points to Harris as the likely winner. This convergence of opinions from different sectors of the financial world underscores a potentially significant shift in the anticipated political landscape post-election.
Economic Policy Preferences: A Divergence of Views
Despite projecting a Harris victory, a commanding 55% of participating CFOs indicated they believe Trump has a superior economic plan. Only 17% expressed similar confidence in Harris’s economic strategy. This discrepancy highlights a crucial tension: while the corporate world may anticipate a Harris presidency, they simultaneously harbor concerns regarding her economic approach. The survey further reveals that inflation and interest rates (38%) are the most pressing economic matters for these CFOs; tax policy and regulation follow at 24% each. Importantly,
Candidates’ Economic Proposals and Corporate Priorities
Both Harris and Trump have recently intensified their focus on the economy. Trump is pushing for new corporate tax incentives, while Harris has unveiled an
Harris’s Economic Platform and Corporate Support
Harris’s recent economic policies have included calls for increases in corporate taxes, although these proposals are less extreme than those advanced by President Biden, suggesting a deliberate attempt to appeal to a broader base. She’s backed up by high profile support, including billionaire Mark Cuban, who actively champions her policies and has described her as “pro-business”. A letter of endorsement from over 80 former top CEOs further signals a surprising level of support from within the business community.
Trump’s Focus on R&D Tax Credits
Trump, meanwhile, has highlighted the importance of research and development (R&D) tax expenses. He has proposed expanding R&D tax credits, allowing companies to fully expense these costs in the first year of operation. This proposal has earned significant support from the corporate sector, as previous tax cuts had phased out this type of tax credit, and has seen bipartisan effort to bring them back (though unsuccessfully, so far).
Post-Election Outlook: A Divided Government
The survey also highlights a robust expectation of a divided government, aligning with the prevailing political forecasts. A vast majority of the CFOs (74%) anticipate a split Congress after the election. The predicted divisions are primarily between the Democrats controlling the Senate and Republicans retaining the majority in the House (45%), with another 29% anticipating a flip between parties but still resulting in a divided Congress. This prediction adds another layer of complexity to the broader economic outlook for the next term.
Conclusion: Uncertainty and Opportunity
The CNBC CFO survey offers a fascinating glimpse into the expectations of corporate America as the election draws near. The prediction of a Harris victory, despite stronger preference for Trump’s economic plans, points to a sense of pragmatic acceptance of the realities of the impending political landscape. The findings highlight the deep-seated economic concerns among these business leaders, centered primarily on inflation and interest rates. With the election rapidly approaching, the contrasting viewpoints and the uncertain economic future will undoubtedly shape the corporate strategies and policy debates in the coming months.
The survey’s implications extend beyond the immediate election outcome. It underscores the prevailing anxiety surrounding the economy and the vital role the government ultimately plays in shaping the business environment. As both Harris and Trump refine their economic platforms, their ability to address these concerns effectively will likely play a decisive role in swaying voters and influencing future business and economic trajectories.
