Kamala Harris Leads Trump Among Younger Americans on Economic Prowess, But Challenges Remain
Despite a majority of young Americans believing the U.S. economy is worsening under the Biden administration, a new survey from CNBC and Generation Lab reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris is seen as the candidate best equipped to improve the economy, edging out Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump. While this presents a potential advantage for Democrats in the upcoming election, the survey also reveals key challenges for Harris and the Democratic party.
Key Takeaways:
- Harris Tops Trump on Economic Competence: A whopping 69% of Americans between 18 and 34 years old believe the economy is getting worse under President Biden. However, 41% of respondents in the survey believe Harris is the best candidate to improve the economy, compared to 40% for Trump.
- Young Voters Prioritize the Economy: The survey highlights the significant role the economy plays in young voters’ political decisions, with "economy and cost of living" being the top issue influencing their vote.
- Potential for Turnout Concerns: While a majority of younger adults surveyed stated they will vote, the historical gap between voter intentions and actual turnout poses a concern for Democrats, especially given the crucial role young voters played in Biden’s 2020 victory.
- Economic Landscape Remains Unstable: The survey was conducted before recent concerning economic indicators, including a contraction in the latest jobs report and a market selloff sparked by fears of a recession. This suggests potential for a shift in voter sentiment if the economic situation deteriorates further.
"Bidenomics" May Not Be A Drag On Harris (Yet)
The survey’s findings suggest that the political drag of the Biden administration’s economic policies, dubbed "Bidenomics," may not have rubbed off on Harris, at least not among younger voters. While Biden won 18-29 year olds by a significant margin of 24 points in 2020, this survey reveals a significant lead for Harris over Trump – a potential sign that young voters are not uniformly blaming the administration for the current economic challenges.
However, it’s crucial to remember that these results come before the full impact of potential economic woes takes hold. The survey was conducted before the recent contraction in the jobs report and the market selloff, both fueled by growing recession fears. Harris will need to be vigilant, as any further economic downturn could negatively affect her campaign.
Kennedy’s Potential Impact
The entry of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. into the race as an independent, anti-vaccine candidate, adds another layer of complexity. While Kennedy’s appeal might be limited to specific demographics and states, he could potentially siphon votes from Harris, especially among disillusioned young voters.
Economy Remains A Wild Card
While Harris has a relative advantage among younger voters, the overall economic climate remains a significant uncertainty. The economy can be a powerful force in shaping voters’ decisions, particularly when it comes to their perceptions of a candidate’s ability to address their concerns.
The survey was conducted before the latest economic indicators emerged, which might shift voter sentiment. A worsening economic outlook could lead to voters blaming Harris, who has yet to fully articulate an economic agenda distinct from Biden’s, and potentially swinging back towards the perceived stability of Trump’s economic policies.
The Importance of Turnout
The survey also raised concerns about voter turnout. While the majority of young adults surveyed stated they will definitely or probably vote, historical patterns suggest a significant gap often occurs between voter intentions and actual turnout. Democrats will need to mobilize young voters and ensure high turnout to maintain the advantage enjoyed by Harris in the survey.
Looking Ahead: A Tight Race and Complex Dynamics
The current poll paints a complex picture for the upcoming election. While Harris appears to have an edge among young voters and the economic impact of "Bidenomics" may not be as pronounced as some feared, the economic landscape remains volatile, with potential for shifts in voter sentiment. Add to this the wildcard of Kennedy’s candidacy, and the race is likely to remain tight and unpredictable.
The next few months will see intense campaigning and further polling to determine how the political landscape continues to evolve. Harris will face the challenge of solidifying her lead among young voters while simultaneously addressing the economic concerns that are top of mind for many Americans.
