Far-Right AfD Poised for Historic Win in Eastern German State Elections, Threatening Scholz’s Coalition
Germany is on the cusp of a political earthquake, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) projected to win a state election for the first time ever in Thuringia. This potential victory, coupled with a strong showing by the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), could significantly impact the country’s political landscape just a year before federal elections and deal a serious blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government.
While the AfD is unlikely to achieve a majority and form a government on its own due to other parties’ refusal to collaborate, its potential victory in Thuringia is a concerning indicator of rising far-right sentiment in eastern Germany. Furthermore, the BSW, led by former communist Sahra Wagenknecht, is also expected to perform well in both Thuringia and Saxony, posing a challenge to coalition building.
Key Takeaways:
- Far-Right Gains: The AfD, known for its anti-migration, eurosceptic, and Russia-friendly stance, is projected to win the most votes in Thuringia, marking a historic first for a far-right party in Germany since World War II.
- Scholz’s Coalition in Jeopardy: Both the AfD and BSW are expected to gain significantly in the elections, severely impacting Scholz’s coalition, with the Greens and Free Democrats potentially failing to secure enough votes to enter parliament. This could lead to instability and further weaken the government’s position before the 2025 federal election.
- Deepening East-West Divide: The AfD and BSW’s strength in eastern Germany highlights a persistent divide between East and West, with concerns about cost of living, the Ukraine war, and immigration running deeper in the former communist-controlled region. Economic advancements in the East have failed to alleviate these concerns, leading to a distrust of mainstream political parties and a rise in support for populist and far-right alternatives.
The AfD’s Rise and its Impact on German Politics
The AfD’s potential success in Thuringia is a significant development in German politics. The party, formed in 2013, has steadily gained traction by capitalizing on a growing sense of alienation and discontent, particularly in eastern Germany.
While the AfD’s platform has evolved over time, its core ideology remains firmly rooted in anti-immigrant sentiment fueled by fears of cultural change and economic instability. The party’s rhetoric often targets minorities and scapegoats them for societal problems, employing divisive tactics and exploiting anxieties about security, identity, and cultural values.
The AfD’s success in eastern Germany can be attributed to a variety of factors, including the region’s economic challenges, a lingering sense of neglect compared to the West, and a general disillusionment with mainstream politics. Further exacerbating these issues is the perception that the government’s response to the Ukraine war and refugee crisis has been inadequate, further bolstering the AfD’s narrative of being the only party truly representing the concerns of ordinary people.
"I just hope that we get a coalition that is democratic and not right-wing at the end," commented Naila Kiesel after casting her vote in Jena, Thuringia, reflecting the growing sense of unease about the AfD’s potential rise to power.
The AfD’s Leadership and its Controversial Past
The AfD’s leadership has been characterized by controversy, with figures like Björn Höcke, the party’s leader in Thuringia, known for their inflammatory rhetoric and far-right views. Höcke, a former history teacher, has been a vocal critic of Germany’s post-war reconciliation efforts and has made numerous controversial statements, including referring to the Holocaust memorial in Berlin as a "monument of shame." He was convicted earlier this year for using a Nazi slogan at a party rally.
The AfD’s past and present leadership, coupled with its divisive rhetoric, raise concerns about its potential impact on German society if it gains further power. Critics argue that the party’s ideology is incompatible with the principles of democracy and civil rights, and that its presence in government would pose a serious threat to Germany’s commitment to tolerance, inclusivity, and a just society.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance and its Appeal to Disillusioned Voters
The emergence of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a newly formed party led by the former communist politician Sahra Wagenknecht, adds another layer of complexity to the German political landscape. The BSW, which describes itself as a socially conservative and economically left-wing party, presents a unique proposition, appealing to both left-leaning voters disillusioned with the current government’s policies and right-leaning voters who share concerns about immigration and cultural change.
Wagenknecht, known for her fiery rhetoric and her ability to connect with disgruntled voters, has capitalized on popular concerns about globalism, uncontrolled immigration, and economic inequality. Her brand of populism, while differing significantly from the AfD’s far-right agenda, has resonated with a segment of the population seeking a change from the status quo.
The BSW’s success in the state elections would pose a significant challenge to the existing political landscape. While it’s unlikely to join forces with the AfD, its strong showing could make it a kingmaker in both Thuringia and Saxony, forcing other parties to negotiate with a party whose foreign policy views are starkly different from the mainstream.
The Consequences of a Far-Right Victory
The potential success of the AfD and the BSW in the upcoming elections would have far-reaching consequences for Germany’s political scene. The rise of far-right sentiment, coupled with the potential instability within Scholz’s coalition, could lead to a period of political uncertainty and potentially pave the way for a reshaping of the country’s political landscape.
"The state elections… have the potential to trigger an earthquake in Berlin," stated Wagenknecht, highlighting the potential for significant shifts in German politics.
A period of political instability could have a detrimental impact on Germany’s international standing and its role in shaping European policies. It could also hinder progress on tackling pressing issues like climate change, economic inequality, and social cohesion.
Looking Ahead: The 2025 Federal Elections and Beyond
The upcoming state elections in Thuringia and Saxony offer a glimpse into the future of German politics. The strong showing of the AfD and the BSW highlights the deep-seated anxieties and frustrations brewing within German society.
These anxieties are unlikely to disappear anytime soon, and their influence will be felt in the 2025 federal elections. The outcome of these elections will ultimately determine the future of Germany’s political landscape and its direction in the face of pressing domestic and international challenges. It will also be a testament to the resilience of German democracy in the face of rising far-right populism and a growing sense of societal division.
While the future remains uncertain, one thing is clear: the upcoming state elections are a crucial crossroads, offering a critical test for German democracy and a powerful indicator of the political landscape ahead.
