China’s New Export Controls on Antimony Spark Fears of a Global Minerals War
China’s latest export controls on antimony, a critical mineral used in everything from bullets and nuclear weapons to lead-acid batteries, has sent shockwaves through the global minerals industry. Analysts fear that this move could signal a broader Chinese strategy to leverage its dominance in the supply chain for key minerals as geopolitical tensions rise.
Key Takeaways:
- China’s Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on antimony, effective Sept. 15.
- Antimony is critical for military and industrial applications, and China accounts for 48% of global production.
- Experts fear that this move could be the first in a series of export controls on critical minerals, including tungsten and rare earths.
- The US, which relies heavily on Chinese imports for these minerals, is actively seeking to diversify its supply chains.
A Bold New Frontier in Geopolitical Competition
The move comes as a surprise to many, especially after China’s previous export controls on graphite, a key battery material, in 2023. This time, however, the implications are much broader, with industry leaders expressing concern that China is seeking to weaponize its control over critical minerals.
“There’s always been an equilibrium…they were never weaponized because they could create this snowball of escalation,” said Lewis Black, CEO of Almonty Industries, a Canadian company seeking to reopen a tungsten mine in South Korea. "Now, there’s a suspicion that China is ready to change that."
The U.S. is particularly vulnerable to China’s dominance in the critical minerals market. The US has not commercially mined tungsten since 2015 and relies heavily on China for its supply. The situation with antimony is even more concerning, with the US not producing any marketable antimony in 2023.
Tungsten: A Metal at the Center of Global Tensions
Tungsten, often dubbed “the strongest metal,” is particularly crucial for military and industrial applications. It is used in weapons manufacturing, semiconductors and industrial cutting machines, positioning it as a key asset in global competition. China’s declining production of tungsten only exacerbates the situation, leading many to believe that export controls on this crucial metal are imminent.
Christopher Ecclestone, principal and mining strategist at Hallgarten & Company, expects China to implement export controls on tungsten by the end of the year. “During a situation where there’s a bit of a race to secure metals in case there is some sort of flare-up in tensions…you want to have as much tungsten as you can.”
The US, aware of its vulnerability, has taken steps to curb its dependence on China. The Restoring Essential Energy and Security Holdings Onshore for Rare Earths Act (REEShore Act) of 2022, slated to take effect in 2026, prohibits the use of Chinese-sourced tungsten in military equipment.
Furthermore, the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party established a working group in June to address the U.S. critical minerals policy. This indicates a growing recognition in Washington of the strategic importance of these minerals and the need for a comprehensive national strategy to secure them.
A Scramble for Alternatives
Faced with China’s potential dominance in the global minerals market, the US and other nations are seeking to develop alternative sources and secure their own supply chains.
Colorado-based Energy Fuels, the largest supplier of uranium oxide to the US, is diversifying its portfolio to include rare earths. The company leverages its “40-year expertise working in naturally radioactive materials" to extract rare earth elements from monazite, a mineral known for its abundance.
The move towards domestic production is significant, but it’s a slow process with uncertainties. “They don’t want to acknowledge that this could escalate,” Black said. “But I don’t think China wants this to escalate either. The last thing you want to create is another boogey man [at] the beginning of a U.S. election. Let’s see in a week whether this is really a policy or not.”
Navigating the Uncertain Waters
China’s recent actions leave the international minerals market in a state of flux. It’s unclear how far China will go in implementing further restrictions. The potential for a wider "minerals war" looms, driven by the increasing strategic significance of these critical elements.
The coming months will reveal if China’s latest move is an isolated incident or the start of a new era of supply chain manipulation. One thing is certain, however: the geopolitical stakes are higher than ever, and the competition for critical minerals will play an ever-increasing role in shaping the future of the global economy and international relations.
