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Stock investors are closing out a great first quarter, with the market continuing to crush it with near-daily record highs. The S&P 500 (SP500) is up 10% in the first three months of the year, already hitting the 5,200 mark that even the most bullish of analysts had predicted for all of 2024. Any weakness hasn’t continued for more than several sessions, with dip buying and fresh money continuing to come off the sidelines.
Broad-based: It’s not only the AI revolution and the Magnificent Seven (or “Super Six” minus Tesla). All of the 11 S&P 500 sectors have risen on a YTD basis, except for Real Estate (SP500-60), and the momentum has even recently spread to other indexes like the Russell 2000 (IWN). The records also haven’t been limited to stocks, with bitcoin (BTC-USD) and gold notching new highs, in a rally that has spread across asset classes.
“The timing of the rate cuts, which was of paramount importance last year, has become less of a concern, largely because of the economic resilience we have seen so far this year,” Investing Group Leader Lawrence Fuller writes in Rotation Is Keeping This Expansion And Bull Market Alive. “The soft landing that has gone from a pipe dream to the consensus view on Wall Street is at hand. That is why markets have performed so well since last October.”
What’s next? The market is closed tomorrow for Good Friday, meaning today will be the last session of the quarter. According to Dow Jones Market Data, when the S&P 500 notches an 8% gain or more in Q1, it is nearly assured to finish the rest of the year on the right foot with an average advance of 9.7% in the following three quarters. Also remember that there is a presidential election in November, which is usually positive for the market regardless of who is declared the winner.
