S&P 500 fall, Boyd Gaming, US election: Market Domination Overtime

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S&P 500 fall, Boyd Gaming, US election: Market Domination Overtime

Thursday’s episode of Market Domination Overtime, co-hosted by Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton, explores market-moving topics.

The show opens with a market analysis, noting the S&P 500’s (^GSPC) retreat from recent highs as it closed in negative territory. Meanwhile, as Nvidia (NVDA) recently claimed the title of most valuable company in US markets, the show welcomes CapWealth founder and chief investment officer Tim Pagliara to offer insights into why investors should approach the semiconductor giant with caution.

The episode also delves into gaming industry news, as reports surface of Boyd Gaming (BYD) expressing interest in a potential acquisition of Penn Entertainment.

Shifting to politics, the show explores the upcoming US election, with Senior Columnist Rick Newman analyzing the rise of ‘double hater’ voters, or individuals who disapprove of both presidential candidates.

his post was written by Angel Smith

Video Transcript

There’s the closing bell on Wall Street and now it is market domination over time.

We’re joined by Jared to get you up to speed on the action from today’s session.

Let’s start with where the major averages ended the day.

Still seeing a mixed picture here with the dow up about 300 points.

It’s about three quarters of 1% the S and P 500 down about a quarter of 1%.

And the NASDAQ leading declines off by 1/10 of 1%.

Now, lately, the past few days, I’ve been checking on this sort of broad thesis, right?

That things are gonna broaden beyond tech.

Well, today that’s actually sort of happening that S and P equal weight index outperforming uh the S and P 500.

And that’s because you see that underperformance of tech today taking a little bit of a hit and then a more broad gain overall energy, by the way, also a part of that upward movement that we are seeing something else that I know Jared Blick is gonna be watching very closely as well is what’s going on volatility and volume wise today.

And tomorrow we’ve got index rebalancing.

We’ve got witching that is expiration of futures and options contracts.

So, you know, will we see more of an uptick in the V maybe we’ll definitely see more volume uh when it comes to people changing, positioning ahead of all of those other changes, Jared.

Yeah, glad you mentioned that Julie something like $5 trillion in notional options going to expire tomorrow.

Plus we have S and P rebound.

Remember that whole issue with XL, that’s tomorrow.

So stay tuned for that.

As you said, Julie, you know, the dow is up today and the NASDAQ is down.

It’s been the flip of that for, I don’t know how many days, but we’re seeing the dow get its light in the sun today and let’s check in on the sector action where we see energy.

That is the number one spot up over 1% actually closer to 2% followed by utilities and financials and services, health care materials that rounds out the top row and then tech the biggest loser to the downside.

And in what I’m calling the chip apocalypse.

Well, is it a disaster?

No, NVIDIA is down 4% but we haven’t seen a really red day like this in the semiconductors in some time.

So I’m gonna get into that with Josh in about 30 minutes.

And uh speaking of Josh back to you, Jared, thank you looking forward to it.

Chairs of NVIDIA sing a sell off midday.

Lean to the tech giants, the clients today, our next guest today sees a big concern with NVIDIA and its customers for more or let’s welcome in Tim Pagliaro, Cap Wealth Chief Investment Officer, Tim.

It is good to see you.

So uh maybe we’ll start there, Tim with NVIDIA, you know, investors have piled in, Tim.

The street loves this name.

I mean, nearly 90% of analysts who cover NVIDIA say you should buy it even here.

But you’re, you’re cautious about, about NVIDIA, how come?

Well, for the very reason that there’s so much consensus, you know, uh I think it was a 10 day in a 10 day period.

NVIDIA added more market cap than Warren Buffett created in Berkshire Hathaway in 60 years.

So that has to give everybody a little bit of pause about, you know, where things were headed.

I was asked in an interview um yesterday about which tech company will hit the $4 trillion mark first.

And I said, well, I, I think you gotta break that into two parts.

Um You know, which one will hit first and then which one’s gonna be sustainable at a $4 trillion company and I chose Microsoft.

Um But I think Navidi will probably at this point hit first just because of the, the, the fervor and consensus that everybody thinks that you’ve got to own that to be successful.

Long term, Tim.

Um It’s Julie here when you look at NVIDIA, what is what is your extrapolation to the rest of the market?

In other words, is what’s going on with NVIDIA, a risk sign for the rest of the market or do you think that it’s just sort of specific to it?

I think it’s a little bit of both.

Um But, but I think, you know, for the value investors, the people look in places where no one else is looking.

I think it’s a great opportunity because, you know, you have NVIDIA, the market cap of it exceeds energy, it exceeds utilities, it exceeds the value of ge the, the last time we went through something like this was in 1998 1999.

Ironically, the darling of that era was Coca Cola.

It had been on a, an 18% per year, compounding 21% annual increases in dividends and you could have taken a dozen companies and you could have owned those or you could have owned Coca Cola.

It’s the same thing with NVIDIA right now.

You can own the entire energy complex, the entire utility complex, General Electric or you could own NVIDIA.

You could have 15 Intels I think is the number or maybe a little bit more or you could own NVIDIA.

So uh how sustainable that is ultimately with long term earnings and profits, given the inherent nature of the chip industry.

You know, it’s, it’s not a good bet from my standpoint.

So in my experience, so, Tim uh what would be in your opinion, a better bet.

A smarter bet right now, give us some, some ideas of where you would be more comfortable committing capital.

Well, I think it’s, you know, when you look at artificial intelligence, we, we look at kind of a, a pick and shovel type of approach, like in a goal rush, you know, sell the shovel, sell the picks.

Um, in this instance, you know, it’s the electricity, you know, complex.

I mean, no one really talks about it but you know, a Google search today compared to a Google search with A I takes 10 to 15 times as much energy um A and that hasn’t really hit the market yet.

And so I see energy companies, you know, Ge Ver Nova as a as an example, um is really benefiting from that so you can make money around the the edges.

Um I think in, in a more sustainable long term uh way because our utility um industry, our grid, all of that needed upgrading anyway.

And this is just going to accelerate the need for that.

Um You know, a lot of those um stocks have been bid up as well this year and their valuations, one could say uh are getting stretched too.

But you think there’s, there’s more upside uh for, for the utilities and some of the other sort of infrastructure providers selectively on a valuation basis, they still look, you know, much cheaper and more sustainable long term, I mean, the building out uh you know, an energy complex, building the grid, that’s not, that, that’s a probably a, a 1520 year process um at, at this point.

So I think there’s AAA really long runway, you know, Intel, for example, um if you look three years out, five years out when they get their cap X um starting to churn out revenue, they’ve got AAA very, very bright future.

You know, they already have a chip that they claim is gonna be faster than the videos.

There’s not a a and again, I’m not, I’m just trying to put a cautionary tale.

Um and, and some reasons where investors should be cautious because this is where people lose a lot of money.

You guys have talked about it.

You know, people have been around a long time.

Look at Cisco, you know, Cisco had the largest market cap of any company in the world when these things turn it’s a long recovery.

You know, people forget it took 13 years for Microsoft following the peak in 2000 just to get back to where it was.

That’s a long time for investors that are used to making money every day.

Yeah, good reminder, Tim.

Thanks a lot.

Appreciate it.

You’re welcome.

Still to come.

The latest election poll from the morning consult shows one in five Americans are double haters doing both Biden and Trump unfavorably, but one of them has got a win.

Right.

We’ll discuss when market of domination overtime returns.

Us.

Casino operator Boyd Gaming has reportedly approached Penn Entertainment to express interest in acquiring the company.

This according to Reuters, any merger would be one of the biggest since El Dorado Resorts $17.3 billion acquisition of Caesars back in 2020.

The report also mentions there was no certainty that Penn will engage in those negotiations with Boyd, but the news did move Penn’s stock prior to the close today and it finished up by almost 10% and a week from tonight.

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will meet for the first presidential debate.

So what does current polling say about their chances here more is Yao Finance’s very own, Rick Newman.

Rick, what does it say?

Well, what caught my interest this morning?

Was this the latest update from Morning Consult, which does very detailed ongoing polling.

They looked at the double haters.

So if you’re not familiar with this phrase, the double hater, uh get familiar with it, you might even be a double hater.

So double haters are the people who dislike both Biden and Trump.

And uh Morning Consult says that is about 17% of all voters are so called double haters.

So what are they going to do?

I mean, and let’s keep in mind, you know, the margin of victory in the electoral college in 2020 was less than 1% in three swing states.

Uh So uh tiny percentages really matter here.

So of these 70% of voters who say they are uh double haters, they don’t describe themselves that way.

They just say they don’t like.

But uh Biden has now taken a lead among the double haters and that is New Trump.

Trump had a lead among them and Trump won the double haters.

There were double haters in 2020 in 2020 as well and Trump won them by 17 points.

So morning consult says Biden is now ahead among this group by 29% to 25%.

34% of the double header, double haters say they will vote for another candidate.

So think RFK junior and uh 12% of them say they don’t know what they’re gonna do.

Uh You think 12% of uh 17% is not that big, that is very big.

12% of 17% is a very big number when you’re fighting for every vote in uh swing districts in six swing states.

So, uh I mean, this gives you, this gives you just an idea of what’s going to decide this election um at the end at the end of the race.

I mean, we’ve got all kinds of polling now, but this is, this is who it’s gonna come down to, is these voters who don’t like either candidate and some of them haven’t made up their minds yet.

Well, and then the question is what will help them make up their minds, right?

Will it be, for example, the debate, you have to wonder how much of these double haters are gonna hold their nose and sit through the debate.

It could be quite a, quite a lot actually.

Um, I mean, the debates, presidential debates get a huge audience.

Um, you know, we not in the primary elections, those are, those are kind of snoozers and by the way, those tend to happen way before the actual election.

But uh I mean, we’ve had um high, double uh high eight digit uh viewership for presidential debates.

I feel like 70 million people watched uh the presidential debates in 2020 Act.

My number could be off but, and it’s expected to be very high this year and debates can make a difference.

So we’ve got two debates scheduled so far, one’s coming up next week and the other one is not in until September so that September 1 will probably be more decisive.

But debates have historically um had some um defining moments.

I mean, uh Ronald Re in 1980 at the close of the final debate with Jimmy Carter.

He said, I want to ask the audience, are you better off now than you were four years ago?

That has now become kind of a kind of a characteristic phrase in the economy.

Uh Ronald Reagan had no other.

There you go again.

Uh And there, you know, I mean, some of these, these debate lines become famous and they really conform an impression.

And so with, you know, Trump and Biden, I mean, I’m gonna say what’s on everybody’s mind, which is, which one of these guys is gonna have a senior moment in front of a national prime time TV audience.

If one of them does that, that could be the thing that’s decisive if neither of them does, um, voters might start to feel a little bit better about their choices.

Maybe we’ll have fewer double, double haters.

Um But, uh my guess is the double haters are gonna remain double haters.

It sounds like a punk band that I, that I didn’t, that I didn’t know I needed.

Well, you’re just saying, are there any triple haters out there?

There have to be right.

I mean, I don’t think so.

I, I was trying to think if there are any famous lines from more recent debates, the only, the only one that popped in my mind was you’re likable enough, which was not the Barack Obama did very poorly in one of the debates in 2020 12 against Mitt Romney.

Um and Mitt Mitt Romney’s poll ratings went up.

Um And, and every, all the Biden team said, wow, we got to regain that ground.

So Biden, you know, he studied up, he had a much more robust performance in the final debate and he got over the finish line, but that was a worry worrisome moment for the incumbent back then.

All right.

Well, we’ll see.

Thanks a lot.

All right, micro strategy diving in further with Bitcoin with plans to buy $786 million more in the Cryptocurrency.

And while Bitcoin has reaped the benefits from the launch this year of Sp Bitcoin ETF S crypto investors are already eyeing the next milestone for the market with the spot, Ethereum ETF S. They’re expected to be perhaps approved this summer here to discuss this in more Swan Bitcoin investment Officer Rafael Zaguri, a pile on on top of all of this.

We were just talking about politics.

There has been a flurry of lobbying activity in Washington when it comes to the crypto industry.

All of that said we have not seen some much fireworks on the price action front lately, Rafael.

So what should investors be looking for there?

Yeah, thanks for having me, Julie.

Great to be here.

I think first of all, you know, when we talk about the the double haters, as I was just listening to the topic, I think crypto is becoming one topic that may sway a lot of the double haters.

I think a lot of people unfortunately are very, you know, losing a lot of trust in the system along the the last few decades.

And when you have a team like that and we have politicians jumping one side, maybe they, they will move some double haters but going back to the price, which is what you mentioned, uh Bitcoin price has been very stable, I think in the, in the, you know, if you look in the last month or so, uh this is nothing new.

This has happened in the past.

If you actually look at Bitcoin price, the way that it moves, it tends to be most of the time, you know, it’s it’s sideways are down and then most of the the upside is actually captured in very short periods of time, right?

And I always say that this is why it’s an asset that it’s very hard to hold in the longer term because most the times they are going to be enjoying pain, it’s weeks and months of pain, you know, for days of glory, that’s the typical trajectory of Bitcoin going back to just to the numbers.

If you look where we are right now, in terms of volatility, volatility is fairly lower, the 5% I would say bottom decile in volatility times.

And I think the good news, if the past is any guidance of what could happen in the future is that periods of very low volatility in Bitcoin tend to have offside periods of return if you look 6090 days ahead, right?

But short term, a lot of things can happen in the short term.

Traders control the price.

And I think it’s always more important for us to zoom out.

Look at, go back to the fundamentals and then think about where Bitcoin could be not, you know, in 90 days, 60 days, but, you know, 5, 10 years from now because as an asset, that’s what we should be thinking about for Bitcoin, I’m interested, Rafael too.

When you talk to friends and family and they ask you what, why you would own crypto here, I’m interested, you know, what are the reasons you tell them?

Because I, I do feel like maybe the story has shifted, you know, it used to be, I think so, idealistic Rafael, you know, at least among the true believers, it was really thought of as this paradigm shift.

Um I’m wondering if you think that’s still the case or, or do you tell them it’s a store of value, it’s a, a medium of exchange.

What are the reasons?

Yeah, Josh, you know, I come from the traditional finances.

I worked at Goldman.

I worked at Merrow.

I worked at Deutsche Me, I worked at all the, all the big banks and for many years, I tried to tell people about Bitcoin and most of them just shied away.

And I think a lot of it because people start, as you mentioned, a lot of them start as a many, many of exchange as their first uh you know, they try to put Bitcoin alongside paypal and other things and other technologies.

But Bitcoin is much bigger than that.

In my perspective, I think Bitcoin is the best savings technology that we’ve ever seen as an economist.

When I look at Bitcoin and you know, a monetary policy that it’s written in code, it’s transparent, it’s fully predictable 15 years without any changes.

Right.

There is not a single central bank in the world that has a monetary policy that it’s in where clothes are similar to what we’ve seen in Bitcoin.

And at the end of the day when we talk about inflation and predictability, what really hes you know, the plans of economic actors is volatility in inflation if we had a 2% which is the target inflation of the central banks, which by definition is already very bad.

But let’s say they were able to hit 2% every single month or every single year without any changes that would be bad already.

But that’s not what happens.

There is huge volatility some months, you know, inflation for the things that you buy may be closer to 10%.

Other months will be negative and planning around that.

It takes a toll and has a toll on the economy and longer term.

Not only that the money printing continues, things continue to be debased.

And you know, if you look at a world of full unpredictability is what we have and unpredictability.

Increasing Bitcoin.

I think it’s a beacon of predictability in a world where you can’t predict anything pretty much.

I don’t think if you look at a price chart of Bitcoin, you would say it’s a beacon of predictability and 2% inflation means growth.

So with growth comes inflation, usually that’s the way economics works.

Although yes, we’ve had very low inflation before this current regime.

But leaving that aside for a minute, Rafael, I want to get back to something you mentioned the beginning when we were talking about politics and talking about the um focus that those in the crypto community have sort of zeroed in on this election.

Um What are you looking for in terms of the biggest policy change that you would advocate for that would help the crypto industry?

Yeah, I think we’re already seeing if I said, you know, in the past, if I told people that Bitcoin would become a topic of discussions among, you know, presidential debates, people would say it was crazy.

That would, and they did that this would never happen, that, you know, this was something that could never happen and it’s happening.

It’s started, you know, with senators talking about Bitcoin, then we had, you know, uh more people talking about it and now we have Trump coming in and which was a surprise for most people even, you know, for some, some of us had been in Bitcoin for a long time to hear him saying, you know, the positive things that, that he did.

Um you know, and as I said in the beginning, I think for people that are very disillu with a lot of things that are happening in politics.

This could be, you know, a very substantial change.

Uh, on top of all of that, if you just look, you know, like, uh the, the ETF S being approved, I think, started with a lot of, uh, uh a lot of these things, uh, and the whole process of getting the, the Bitcoin ETF approved, you know, that, that, that was also, I think A F was hard to go through.

But the bottom line of all of this is that we’re getting a lot of things that, you know, we’ve been looking for for a long time, which is getting more support, more clarity around the, you know, the, the how you should hold Bitcoin, how you can wrap it.

And that’s all positive, I think, and I think at the end of the day, even when we talk about an Ethereum ETF, I think all, all the ETF they should be approved and what the, the SEC should be focusing more and more is what it was supposed to be focusing.

I think from the beginning, which is there, you know what they started when we had the Securities Act 3433 and 34.

The whole goal was to provide better transparency, better disclosure, you know, prospectors that really highlighted the risks.

And I think that there’s an opportunity here for the SEC to turn back to their original mandate and to help with that.

But overall, it’s just very good and very positive to see the developments I think, you know, definitely heading in the right direction.

Rafael.

Great to see you.

Thanks for making time for us.

Appreciate it.

Thank you and time now for to watch Friday, June 21st, we start off with housing new existing home sales numbers for May coming out in the morning.

That number expected to decline compared to April.

This is coming after new housing starts.

Data from today hit the slowest pace in four years.

The new home sales data giving us more insight into home buyers as they continue to get squeezed by sticky inflation and mortgage rates.

Taking a look at the economy, new purchasing managers index data coming out in the morning as well.

Economists forecasting those numbers will tick down slightly and this coming after us, business activity accelerated at the fastest pace in two years last month giving us another key indicator of economic activity.

And finally, Carmax set to report its first scored results ahead of the open tomorrow.

Analysts expecting the used vehicle retailers profit and volume and sales to remain strong companies knocking on the door now of rival Carvana but still trails in gross profit per that’ll do it for today’s market domination over time.

Be sure to come back tomorrow at 3 p.m. Eastern for all of your coverage leading up to and after the closing bell, but don’t go anywhere on the other side of the break.

It’s asking for a trend, stay tuned.

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