RBC Capital Markets increased its 2024 year-end target for the S & P 500, but the bank is taking a cautious stance on its market outlook. Head of global equity strategy Lori Calvasina now sees the broad market index ending the year at 5,700, up from her previous target of 5,300. The new forecast indicates a 19.5% gain from where the market ended in December 2023 and a 4.4% rise from June’s close. Calvasina called this “a nervous raise.” “We’ve described ourselves as a ‘tired bull’ and ‘neutral’ recently. Today, we would alter that slightly and characterize ourselves as a ‘nervous and jumpy bull,’” Calvasina wrote in a research note released Tuesday. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 in 2024 While she does see more upside ahead for the benchmark, Calvasina noted that valuations suggest the market is a bit overbought. There is also the risk that another short-term pullback — similar to what the market experienced in April — will take place, the strategist said. The short-term downward movement would likely be within just a range of 5% to 10%. “Seasonality is adding to our concerns about a pullback. Over the past decade, July has been a good month for the S & P 500, but the index does tend to run into trouble in August, September and/or October,” said Calvasina. “Our sentiment-related work is making the case for some choppiness in the months ahead.” The S & P 500 has climbed nearly 15% year to date, with gains driven largely by chipmaker Nvidia and a small group of other megacap tech stocks.
