First National Bank Alaska: Expected Earnings High Enough To Support Payout (OTCQX:FBAK)

First National Bank Alaska: Expected Earnings High Enough To Support Payout (OTCQX:FBAK)


christiannafzger

Earnings of First National Bank Alaska (OTCQX:FBAK) will likely remain rangebound in the upcoming quarters. Moderate loan growth will likely push up earnings while a growth in operating expenses will restrict earnings growth. Meanwhile, the margin will likely remain stable. Overall, I’m expecting

Financial PositionFY19FY20FY21FY22FY23EFY24E
Net Loans1,9922,1902,1042,2082,3472,467
Growth of Net Loans2.9%9.9%(3.9)%4.9%6.3%5.1%
Other Earning Assets1,5892,3913,3562,8863,0643,125
Deposits2,3883,1134,2174,2253,9604,162
Total Liabilities3,2614,1095,0274,9305,1425,367
Common equity548587555408416424
Book Value Per Share ($)172.8185.2175.1128.7131.5133.9
Tangible BVPS ($)172.8185.2174.1127.8130.8133.1
Source: FDIC Call Reports, Annual Financial Reports, Author’s Estimates(In USD million unless otherwise specified)

Income StatementFY19FY20FY21FY22FY23EFY24E
Net interest income137145146145150154
Provision for loan losses022(1)02
Non-interest income232627242628
Non-interest expense8691929398101
Net income – Common Sh.565858585658
EPS – Diluted ($)17.5618.1718.4518.3917.8518.34
Source: FDIC Call Reports, Annual Financial Reports, Author’s Estimates(In USD million unless otherwise specified)

P/TB Multiple1.23x1.33x1.43x1.53x1.63x
TBVPS – Dec 2023 ($)130.8130.8130.8130.8130.8
Target Price ($)160.2173.3186.4199.5212.6
Market Price ($)190.0190.0190.0190.0190.0
Upside/(Downside)(15.7)%(8.8)%(1.9)%5.0%11.9%
Source: Author’s Estimates

P/E Multiple10.83x11.83x12.83x13.83x14.83x
EPS 2023 ($)17.917.917.917.917.9
Target Price ($)193.3211.2229.0246.9264.7
Market Price ($)190.0190.0190.0190.0190.0
Upside/(Downside)1.8%11.2%20.6%30.0%39.4%
Source: Author’s Estimates



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