Stock market today: US futures tilt higher after Dow closes above 40,000 for first time

Stock market today: US futures tilt higher after Dow closes above 40,000 for first time

US stocks tilted higher on Monday after the Dow closed above 40,000 for the first time, as copper prices surged and Nvidia (NVDA) earnings loomed on the horizon.

S&P 500 () futures rose 0.1%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average () were broadly flat in the wake of the blue-chip benchmark’s all-time high. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 () stepped up 0.2%.

Stocks have gained as investors become more optimistic that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates, despite words of caution from policymakers. All three major gauges closed at record highs on Friday as appetite for risk rose and Wall Street strategists painted a bullish picture for stocks.

A key question for investors is whether that outlook is sustainable or whether it’s getting ahead of where the Fed is headed. Appearances on Monday from Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson and other officials could shed light on the debate. But the first test comes on Wednesday, with the release of minutes from the Fed meeting in May, as Yahoo Finance’s Josh Schafer reports.

Read more: How does the labor market affect inflation?

The market is also bracing for heavily anticipated quarterly results from Nvidia on Wednesday, eyed as a key catalyst for the rally in stocks. Expectations for the AI chipmaker’s earnings and revenue are sky-high — for growth of 400% and 240%, respectively — and the focus is on whether it can again live up to the hype.

At the same time, rallies in commodity markets are fueling fears of a knock-on rise for US inflation. Copper prices on the LME topped $11,000 a ton for the first time, soaring to their highest-ever level as a looming supply shortage draws in investors. Meanwhile, gold prices (GC=F) jumped to tap an intraday record at around $2,450 an ounce.

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  • Watching Dr. Copper

    If the economy is poised for a pre-election slowdown, you aren’t seeing it industrial metal copper.

    Copper prices have touched record highs.

    Copper play Rio Tinto (RIO) eyeing a one-year high.

    A five-year look at copper prices shows record highs.A five-year look at copper prices shows record highs.

    A five-year look at copper prices shows record highs. (Yahoo Finance)

  • Stock market today: US futures tilt higher after Dow closes above 40,000 for first time

    Nvidia expectations are super high

    We awake today to find Nvidia (NVDA) as the third trending ticker on the Yahoo Finance platform ahead of its earnings report on Wednesday.

    Clearly, the retail investor community is bracing for another impressive earnings day (results + guidance) showing from the AI darling.

    Important point, however, from Bank of America Vivek Arya this morning: great from Nvidia may not be great enough.

    Says Arya:

    “Based on bullish investors we spoke with expectations seem well-above consensus estimates as usual, with $26 billion in sales expected for reported fiscal first quarter (April), or 6% ahead of consensus $24.6 billion, with guidance expected to be close to $28 billion or 5% ahead of $26.7 billion. Second, gross margins are expected to peak at 77% in the fiscal first quarter, with well-expected outlook for a decline to 75%-76% in the fiscal second quarter (normalization after some one-off factors pushed it above 75% last few quarters). However, even if Nvidia were to potentially deliver on these bullish expectations, the stock could still react unfavorably as bears will likely complain that: 1) Nvidia’s sequential sales growth will decelerate to “only” 7%-8% quarter over quarter in the fiscal second quarter (July) outlook, well below the mid-teens or better the last few quarters, 2) Gross margin is peaking and decline is a sign of pricing pressure, unfavorable mix (more China H20 shipments and/or more inference units) and slowing demand/easing supply.”

  • Stock market today: US futures tilt higher after Dow closes above 40,000 for first time

    Nvidia memories

    Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid with a moment of reflection ahead of Nvidia’s (NVDA) closely watched earnings report on Wednesday:

    “Remember this time last year the mainstream AI frenzy began around the time of Nvidia’s results where the company climbed over 20% on results day and has now tripled in value over 12 months.”

    Nvidia shares are up 197% since that May 24, 2023 earnings report.

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