India’s Modi Heads to Moscow for First Kremlin Visit Since Ukraine Invasion
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday in Moscow, marking his first visit to the Kremlin since the invasion of Ukraine. This meeting holds significant weight as Modi’s first bilateral trip overseas since his re-election for a third term in June. The event signifies the enduring relationship between India and Russia, despite international pressures stemming from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Key Takeaways:
- Maintaining Diplomatic Ties: Modi’s visit showcases India’s commitment to its long-standing partnership with Russia, even amidst the global fallout of the Ukraine invasion.
- Navigating International Tensions: India’s decision to maintain neutral ground in the Ukraine conflict, while seeking release of nationals serving in the Russian army, reveals its deft diplomatic maneuvering in a complex geopolitical landscape.
- Economic and Strategic Interests: The visit serves as a platform to discuss bilateral issues including defense, trade, investment, and energy cooperation, further highlighting the mutual interests that fuel the India-Russia relationship.
- Balancing Act: Despite deepening ties with Russia, India has also chosen to skip the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, where Chinese President Xi Jinping attended, highlighting the delicate balance India is attempting to maintain in its relations with both Russia and China.
A Complex Relationship Under Scrutiny
India and Russia share a deep history of strategic cooperation, dating back to the Cold War era. New Delhi heavily relies on Moscow for military equipment, and their relationship extends beyond mere arms deals. However, the Ukraine conflict has introduced a new level of complexity, forcing India to navigate delicate diplomatic waters.
India has refrained from outright condemnation of Russia’s actions in Ukraine, instead advocating for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. This neutral stance has drawn criticism from Western nations, but India has defended its position, citing its historical ties with Russia and its dependence on Russian energy and arms.
Economic Interdependence and Trade Ties
India’s trade with Russia has seen a significant surge in recent years, reaching an all-time high of $65.7 billion in the financial year ended March 2024. This growth has been fueled by India’s increased reliance on Russian oil imports since the imposition of Western sanctions on Moscow. However, the trade remains imbalanced, with India’s exports to Russia significantly lower than its imports.
The Shadow of China
Modi’s visit to Moscow also comes against the backdrop of strained relations with China. India and China have been locked in a long-standing territorial dispute, with tensions escalating in 2020 following border clashes that resulted in casualties on both sides. While India has emphasized resolving the border issue, it appears unlikely that a bilateral meeting between Modi and Xi will take place anytime soon.
Seeking to Re-establish Ties with Austria
Following his engagement in Moscow, Modi will embark on a visit to Vienna, Austria, his first in 41 years. This visit aims to revitalize bilateral ties and explore avenues for cooperation between the two nations.
Balancing Act: India’s Strategic Navigations
Modi’s visit to Russia and his subsequent trip to Austria underscore India’s pursuit of independent foreign policy. While India recognizes the evolving dynamics of the global power landscape, it remains committed to its long-standing partnerships while also seeking to deepen ties with other nations.
"India’s relationship with Russia is not just about military equipment," emphasized Kanwal Sibal, former Indian Foreign Secretary. "Neither India nor the global south consider Putin an international pariah."
However, India’s need to maintain a delicate balance between its strategic interests, economic imperatives, and international obligations presents a significant challenge. Modi’s visit to Moscow, therefore, is not just a diplomatic exchange but a demonstration of how India intends to navigate its way amidst a world shaped by complex geopolitical forces.
