Britain is poised to experience a monumental shift in its automotive landscape, with a new report projecting that 2024 will mark “peak petrol,” as electric vehicles (EVs) accelerate towards market dominance. Auto Trader’s analysis reveals a dramatic decline in gasoline-powered cars over the next decade, coupled with a significant surge in EV adoption, driven by improving affordability and government initiatives. This transition, however, faces considerable challenges, including industry concerns about the pace of change and the impact of the government’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate.
Key Takeaways: Britain’s Electric Vehicle Revolution
- “Peak Petrol” in 2024: The number of gasoline cars on UK roads is predicted to nearly halve by 2034.
- EV Boom: EV registrations are set to explode, reaching 13.7 million by 2034, from just 1.25 million in 2024.
- ZEV Mandate Debate: The government’s ambitious ZEV targets are sparking controversy, with automakers expressing concerns and calls for review.
- Industry Challenges: The transition to EVs is impacting the auto industry with job losses and factory closures.
- Government Response: The UK government is investing heavily in EV infrastructure and manufacturing support but faces balancing rapid transition with industry stability.
The Decline of Petrol and the Rise of EVs
Auto Trader’s report paints a stark picture of the future of British motoring. Their data estimates that in 2024, there are 18.7 million gasoline-powered cars on UK roads. However, this number is projected to plummet to just 11.1 million by 2034 – a reduction of almost half. This dramatic decrease is directly correlated with the anticipated surge in electric vehicle ownership. Auto Trader forecasts that the number of EVs on UK roads will skyrocket from 1.25 million in 2024 to a staggering 13.7 million by 2034. This represents a tenfold increase in just ten years, indicating a dramatic shift in consumer preferences and automotive market dynamics.
Market Share Projections
While the projected growth in EV adoption is undeniably significant, the report also highlights the challenges ahead. The current EV share of the new car market in Britain sits at roughly 18% in 2024, Auto Trader estimates. This is expected to rise to 23% in 2025. However, this still falls short of the UK government’s ambitious target of 28% under the ZEV mandate for next year. The mandate itself sets increasingly stringent targets, aiming for 80% EV sales by 2030 and 100% by 2035, indicating a near-total phase-out of petrol and diesel vehicles within the next decade.
The Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate: A Double-Edged Sword
The UK government’s ZEV mandate is central to this transition, aiming to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles and drastically reduce carbon emissions from the transportation sector. The mandate mandates that a certain percentage of new cars sold must be zero-emission vehicles. Whilst this ambitious policy is considered essential by many environmental groups for meeting climate goals, it has also become a focal point of tension within the automotive industry. Manufacturers are required to ensure that at least 22% of new cars sold are ZEVs under current rules and the target has been set for 28% next year before even more ambitious targets.
Industry Concerns and Calls for Review
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), a powerful industry lobby group, recently warned that the government’s targets are placing “excessive pressure” on the automotive sector. They argue that the current pace of change risks having “devastating impacts” on manufacturing and employment. This sentiment is echoed by calls for an urgent government review of the ZEV mandate, citing the relatively high costs of EVs and a recent slowdown in demand as major factors impacting the industry’s ability to meet the targets.
The recent closure of Stellantis’ Vauxhall van factory in Luton, with the loss of over 1,000 jobs, is pointed to as a stark example of the economic consequences of this rapid shift. Industry leaders contend that existing challenges, such as supply chain restrictions, changing finance rules, and government policy, need more considerate approach to be able to meet the government mandates.
Balancing Ambitions with Industry Realities: A Necessary Dialogue
The UK government acknowledges the challenges faced by the automotive industry. A spokesperson confirmed that a consultation is planned to review support measures available to the industry to aid its transition. The government highlights significant investments: a £2 billion ($2.54 billion) program, to support domestic manufacturing and and further investments to drive EV uptake. These financial commitments signal the government’s determination to facilitate the transition to EVs, while at the same time acknowledging the complexity of balancing environmental goals with the economic realities of a major sector experiencing significant disruption. This transition could also be severely challenged by a global recession and global geopolitical instability potentially impacting the production of raw materials for EV batteries and other crucial components.
Environmental Advocacy
Conversely, a coalition of 14 NGOs, think tanks, and campaign groups have written to the government, urging them to maintain the existing ZEV mandate. The group argues that the mandate remains one of the UK’s most significant carbon-saving measures and that the flexibilities currently provided to the automotive industry are adequate. They underscore the urgency of achieving climate targets and the importance of sticking to the ambitious timetable laid out in the ZEV mandate.
The debate over the UK’s ZEV mandate highlights the very real tension between ambitious environmental goals and the potential economic disruptions within the automotive industries. Finding a path that successfully accelerates the transition to electric vehicles while supporting workers and sustaining the automotive industries will require careful planning, substantial investment, governmental intervention and possibly a more global effort. Whilst some analysts suggest the ZEV mandates need a reconsideration, others argue the existing levels of government support are enough. Only time will tell whether the UK is on the correct course.
