This Thanksgiving, moviegoers will face a blockbuster bonanza as three highly anticipated films – Universal’s “Wicked,” Paramount’s “Gladiator 2,” and Disney’s “Moana 2” – clash at the box office. Released within just five days of each other, these films are poised for significant success, but their ultimate box office performance hinges on a crucial factor: securing premium large-format screens (PLFs) and captivating audiences in a competitive market. The battle for PLFs isn’t just about maximizing ticket sales; it’s about capturing audience attention and defining which film emerges as the holiday season’s cinematic champion.
Key Takeaways:
- Three major Hollywood blockbusters (“Wicked,” “Gladiator 2,” and “Moana 2”) will compete intensely for box office dominance around Thanksgiving.
- Premium Large Format screens (PLFs) like IMAX and Dolby are becoming increasingly crucial for maximizing a film’s opening weekend revenue and overall box office success.
- The competition for PLF screen availability will significantly impact the opening weekend performance of each film, especially given the close proximity of their release dates.
- Audience preferences and critical reception will play a key role in determining which film truly breaks through the crowded holiday movie market.
- Hollywood studios are increasingly relying on established intellectual property (IP) to drive box office success, making franchise films crucial players in this holiday competition.
Going Premium: The Rise of PLFs
The landscape of moviegoing is changing. Audiences are increasingly seeking out Premium Large Format (PLF) experiences. These aren’t just bigger screens; they offer enhanced sound systems, superior seating, and overall more immersive viewing. This preference is driving growth in the PLF market, with a remarkable 33.7% increase in North American theaters equipped with PLF screens in the last five years, according to Comscore data. Currently, PLFs account for around 9.1% of the domestic box office, generating approximately $600 million in 2024. This growth is not insignificant; it indicates a shift in how audiences consume cinema.
The Premium Price Point
This elevated experience comes at a higher price. Premium tickets average around $16.71, significantly more than the average $11.82 for standard tickets. Despite this, audiences are willing to pay a premium for the enhanced cinematic experience. As Steve Buck of EntTelligence notes, “Premium format is a significant draw…often representing over one-third of the foot traffic on a tentpole’s opening weekend.”
Hollywood’s Investment in the Future of Cinema-Going
The National Association of Theatre Owners’ recent announcement of a $2.2 billion investment to upgrade cinema locations further underscores the importance of the PLF market. This investment signals a belief in the enduring power of the cinematic experience, particularly within the context of enhanced technological advancements and appealing consumer entertainment beyond the film itself. The improvements will encompass laser projectors, sound systems, seating, concession offerings, and even additions of family-friendly attractions such as bowling alleys and arcades.
Blockbusters on the Biggest Screen
PLF screens are highly coveted by studios, especially for big-budget blockbusters. Films like “Oppenheimer,” “Avatar: The Way of Water,” and the “Dune” films have demonstrated the significant revenue potential of maximizing PLF reach. These films weren’t just shown in PLFs; they were often shot with specialized cameras designed for these premium formats, enhancing the viewing experience considerably.
The Power of Existing Intellectual Property
The dominance of franchise films and existing intellectual property (IP) in 2024 cannot be overstated. Audiences flock to familiar characters and stories, driving box office success for films like “Deadpool & Wolverine,” “Inside Out 2,” and “Despicable Me 4.” This trend underscores the importance of established IP in today’s market, as it’s projected that between 50% and 70% of films from the six major studios will be based on existing IP in 2025.
The Thanksgiving Showdown
The Thanksgiving clash between “Wicked,” “Gladiator 2,” and “Moana 2” presents a unique challenge. “Wicked” and “Gladiator 2” will initially vie for PLF screen dominance, but the entry of “Moana 2” will significantly alter the landscape. The distribution of PLF screens is a complex negotiation between studios and theater chains. As new films open, the allocation of premium screens shifts according to pre-negotiated agreements.
Potential for a “Barbenheimer” Moment?
While there’s potential for a repeat of the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon (the unexpected simultaneous success of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer”), the Thanksgiving lineup presents a more complex scenario. Predictions for opening weekends vary wildly. While some predict a conservative $85 million opening for “Wicked,” others suggest it could reach as high as $150 million. “Gladiator 2” projections fall between $60 million and $80 million. “Moana 2” is showing strong pre-sales and anticipates a debut exceeding $100 million over its five-day opening.
The Importance of Word-of-Mouth
Ultimately, word-of-mouth and audience reviews will play a crucial role in determining the long-term success of each. Though initial PLF screen dominance is important, positive critical reception and audience engagement are equally vital for sustained box office momentum, according to Shawn Robbins of Fandango’s movie division and founder of Box Office Theory.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal is the distributor of “Wicked,” “Oppenheimer,” “Despicable Me 4,” and “Twisters,” and owns Fandango.
