A surge in wealthy Americans are actively planning to leave the United States in the lead-up to the upcoming election, driven by anxieties surrounding political and social unrest regardless of the election outcome. Immigration lawyers and advisors to high-net-worth families report a record increase in demand for second passports and long-term residencies abroad. While such discussions often arise before elections, this year marks a significant shift, with many affluent individuals already taking concrete steps to relocate.
Key Takeaways: The Great American Exodus?
- Record Demand: Immigration attorneys are witnessing an unprecedented surge in wealthy Americans seeking second passports and overseas residencies, exceeding previous years by a significant margin (at least 30%).
- Political Uncertainty as Driver: Fear of political and social unrest, amplified by the upcoming election, is a primary motivator behind this exodus. Concerns extend beyond the election’s immediate aftermath, reflecting a deeper unease about the nation’s future.
- Diversification Strategy: The ultra-wealthy increasingly view single-country citizenship as a concentrated risk, mirroring their investment diversification strategies by creating “passport portfolios” to mitigate geopolitical instability.
- Popular Destinations: Europe, particularly countries offering “golden visa” programs (Portugal, Malta, Greece, Spain), are highly sought after for investment-based residency. The Caribbean is also gaining traction for passport options.
- Shifting Landscape: European countries are reevaluating their “golden visa” programs due to rapid price increases and concerns about mass immigration. This could lead to stricter regulations and higher minimum investment thresholds.
The Election Effect: A Catalyst for Relocation
Dominic Volek, group head of private clients at Henley & Partners, a firm specializing in international migration, stated, “We’ve never seen demand like we see now.” He highlights that American clients now constitute 20% of their business, surpassing any other nationality. This dramatic upswing, exceeding last year’s figures by at least 30%, is directly linked to the growing anxieties surrounding American politics and the upcoming election.
David Lesperance, managing partner of Lesperance and Associates, an international tax and immigration firm, confirms this trend, noting a tripling in the number of American clients seeking overseas relocation compared to last year. This dramatic increase underscores the seriousness with which wealthy Americans are viewing the current political climate.
Beyond Tax Concerns: A Multifaceted Exodus
While tax benefits have historically been a driver for Americans seeking relocation, Lesperance observes a significant shift. “For some of them, the primary thing is ‘I don’t want to live in a MAGA America,'” he explains. This sentiment highlights the stark political polarization influencing the decision-making process of affluent individuals. Conversely, concerns exist regarding potential unrest if a specific candidate loses the election, or policies impacting high-net-worth individuals, such as Vice President Kamala Harris’ proposed tax plan on unrealized capital gains for those worth over $100 million.
Even with a low probability of passing Congress, such proposals are impacting the choices wealthy Americans are making. As Lesperance points out, “Even if there is only a 3% chance that it happens, you still want to take out insurance.“
The Appeal of “Golden Visas” and Second Passports
A survey by Arton Capital, a firm specializing in immigration programs, confirms these trends, revealing that 53% of American millionaires are more likely to leave the U.S. after the election, regardless of the outcome. This percentage increases amongst younger millionaires, with an astonishing 64% of those aged 18-29 expressing strong interest in “golden visa” programs.
Beyond political anxieties, the desire for second passports or residencies stems from a broader trend. The wealthy increasingly view diversification of their assets as vital. They are now actively assembling what’s being termed “passport portfolios,” mirroring their investment strategy of diversifying holdings across various markets to mitigate risk exposure in any single country.
European Hotspots and Shifting Regulations
Europe remains the prime destination for many wealthy Americans seeking a new home. Henley & Partners identifies Portugal, Malta, Greece, Spain, and Antigua as top choices for residency or second citizenship. Italy has also emerged as a popular option. Armand Arton of Arton Capital notes, “The love affair between Americans and Europe has been going on for a very long time. It comes with a price, and they are totally fine investing a couple hundred thousand dollars or a half million into a property or a fund.“
However, the landscape is changing quickly for golden visa programs. Europe is grappling with potential backlash against these programs due to soaring property prices and the influx of foreign residents. Portugal, for instance, has altered its golden visa program after facing criticism regarding increased property prices. Similarly, Italy doubled its flat tax on the overseas income of wealthy foreign residents to 200,000 euros in response to increasing immigration. This demonstrates a growing pushback against programs that facilitate significant influxes of wealthy individuals. In Portugal, property prices in the Algarve region have skyrocketed by **15%**, leading authorities to revise the requirements of the program upward.
Beyond Europe: Alternative Paths to Citizenship
Malta currently stands out as a preferred choice for a second passport among wealthy Americans, although it comes at a high price ($1 million to $1.2 million all-inclusive). The program offers effortless travel within Malta and the European Union, but the EU is contesting the legality of the program. Most immigration specialists project a victory for Malta in ongoing legal disputes.
The Caribbean offers attractive options for those seeking a second passport. Countries like Antigua and Barbuda permit citizenship in exchange for real estate investments exceeding $300,000. This passport allows travel to destinations such as Hong Kong, Russia, Singapore, the UK, and Europe. Other Caribbean countries, such as St. Lucia, are also seeing increasing interest from American citizens.
For those with ancestral ties to countries like Ireland or Italy, or other countries, lineage citizenship offers a more affordable alternative to securing citizenship. Several countries offering retirement visas provide an accessible route to residency and eventual citizenship. Despite the advantages, obtaining citizenship or residency is not an immediate process. The sheer volume of applications, along with several layers of background checks, stretches wait times to several months or even over a year.
“It’s getting crowded,” Lesperance concludes, “And I’m sure I’m going to get a bunch more on Nov. 6 or 7.” This observation highlights the uncertainty surrounding the political climate’s impact on the future of this trend. In the coming weeks and months, the post-election landscape will solidify, either reinforcing or significantly altering the trajectory of wealthy Americans seeking refuge abroad.
