Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2024 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary)

Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2024 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.6 percent. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending (refer to “Updates to GDP”).

The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

Compared to the fourth quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected decelerations in consumer spending, exports, and state and local government spending and a downturn in federal government spending. These movements were partly offset by an acceleration in residential fixed investment. Imports accelerated.

Current‑dollar GDP increased 4.3 percent at an annual rate, or $298.9 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $28.26 trillion, a downward revision of $28.6 billion from the previous estimate (tables 1 and 3). More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file on BEA’s website.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.0 percent in the first quarter, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.3 percent, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.6 percent, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point.

Personal Income

Current-dollar personal income increased $404.4 billion in the first quarter, a downward revision of $2.6 billion from the previous estimate. The increase in the first quarter primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries) and personal current transfer receipts (led by government social benefits to persons) (table 8).

Disposable personal income increased $266.7 billion, or 5.3 percent, in the first quarter, an upward revision of $40.5 billion from the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income increased 1.9 percent, an upward revision of 0.8 percentage point.

Personal saving was $796.6 billion in the first quarter, an upward revision of $96.6 billion from the previous estimate. The personal saving rate— personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.8 percent in the first quarter, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point.

Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.5 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 3.6 percent (revised) in the fourth quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter (table 1).

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $21.1 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $133.5 billion in the fourth quarter (table 10).

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $73.7 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $5.9 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $114.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $136.5 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $19.3 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $8.9 billion. In the first quarter, receipts increased $29.8 billion, and payments increased $10.5 billion.

Updates to GDP

With the second estimate, downward revisions to consumer spending, private inventory investment, and federal government spending were partly offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and exports. Imports were revised up. For more information, refer to the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, refer to the “Additional Information” section that follows.

 Advance EstimateSecond Estimate
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP1.61.3
Current-dollar GDP4.84.3
Real GDI1.5
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI1.4
Gross domestic purchases price index3.13.0
PCE price index3.43.3
PCE price index excluding food and energy3.73.6

Updates to Fourth-Quarter Wages and Salaries

In addition to presenting updated estimates for the first quarter, today’s release presents revised estimates of fourth-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance, based on updated data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $58.5 billion in the fourth quarter, a downward revision of $73.0 billion. Personal current taxes are now estimated to have increased $27.1 billion, a downward revision of $12.6 billion. Contributions for government social insurance are now estimated to have increased $8.3 billion, a downward revision of $9.6 billion. With the incorporation of these new data, real gross domestic income is now estimated to have increased 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter, a downward revision of 1.2 percentage points from the previously published estimate.

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Next release, June 27, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. EDT
Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate)
Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate)
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
First Quarter 2024

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Source Reference

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