The Convertible’s Disappearing Act: Why The Drop Top Is Losing Its Appeal
Once a quintessential symbol of American freedom and fun, the convertible car is facing a slow decline. While the wind in your hair and the sun on your face might seem like a timeless allure, the open-air driving experience is becoming less prevalent on our roads.
The shift began in the 1930s as paved highways and more enclosed vehicles made driving a year-round activity. Convertibles became associated with luxury, a trend further solidified after World War II when returning soldiers embraced European sports cars. By the 1950s, convertibles were a common sight, epitomizing leisure and a carefree spirit.
However, the 1970s marked the beginning of the convertible’s downfall. Fuel crises, rising costs, and changing consumer priorities contributed to its declining sales. According to industry experts, several factors are responsible for the convertible’s dwindling popularity today:
- Practicality: Convertibles are often seen as luxury purchases, not necessities. Their lack of space and vulnerability to the elements make them less practical for everyday use, especially for growing families.
- Rising Costs: Convertibles are inherently more expensive than their hardtop counterparts, a fact exacerbated by shrinking sales which drive up production costs.
- Changing Driving Habits: Commuting and running errands are now the primary reasons for driving, making a car more of a utility than a symbol of freedom.
- The Rise of Sunroofs: Large panoramic sunroofs offer a taste of open-air driving without sacrificing practicality.
- Seasonal Sales: The convertible market is highly seasonal, making it difficult for manufacturers to gauge demand and avoid unwanted inventory.
Despite the decline, convertibles haven’t vanished entirely. High-end European brands continue to produce them, with luxury and performance taking center stage. Some hope for a resurgence lies in the SUV segment, with models like the Range Rover Evoque Convertible and the Nissan Murano Convertible exploring the open-air experience in a different form factor.
"I think time will prove out those two were just the early trend setters and that they’ll actually, they’ll be a convertible SUV segment," says automotive analyst Johnny, referencing the potential for a new era of open-air SUVs.
While the future of the convertible remains uncertain, its legacy as a symbol of freedom and fun endures. Perhaps the open-air driving experience will once again find its place in a rapidly evolving automotive landscape, even if it’s not quite how we envisioned it in the past.
The Open Road: Why Convertibles Are Losing Their Top Spot
The sun shining, the wind rushing through your hair, and the envy of other drivers as they see someone having more fun on the road than them – it seems like a no-brainer, but the convertible is disappearing. The drop top, an automotive icon found on some of history’s most famous models, now makes up a tiny portion of sales in the 21st century. We used to have a large number of front-wheel drive entry-level convertibles out there, from the Sebring to the PT Cruiser, to the Camry, and even the Volkswagen Beetle. Now, none of those vehicles are with us anymore, and that whole part of the market has really gone away. Why have convertibles fallen out of favor, and will they make a comeback?
Key Takeaways:
- Convertibles have become less popular in recent decades, with sales plummeting from 2.1% of new car sales in 2005 to just 0.46% in 2021.
- The decline can be attributed to factors like practicality, rising car prices, the rise of panoramic sunroofs, and even the changing cultural role of the car.
- The convertible market has shifted towards luxury and sports cars, with European brands dominating the segment.
- The future of convertibles may lie in the SUV segment, with some automakers experimenting with open-air versions of crossover vehicles.
The Convertible’s Winding History
In the early days of the automotive industry, pretty much every vehicle was topless, or at least open-air driving was a fair-weather activity. Roads weren’t great, so driving in the rain or snow would be undesirable. The first fully affordable enclosed vehicle was an Essex, built in 1920. It was a closed car that was targeted at the mass market and initially priced not a whole lot higher than the open model. Within a couple of years, it fell to the same price, and that really changed things. At the same time, roads were getting better, and we started getting paved highways even between cities. Driving was starting to become a more year-round activity, so people began to prefer closed cars. By the 1930s, things had completely flipped — closed cars were the "cheap" cars, and convertibles were the more expensive ones.
Things reversed again during World War II. American GIs returning home brought with them a fascination with European cars, especially small British sports cars made by brands such as Triumph and MG. Bemused American manufacturers introduced vehicles that would become legends: cars like the Chevrolet Corvette and the Ford Thunderbird. It was about American fun and freedom, you know, a vacation you can take every day. You might not want your convertible top down in Michigan in October or November, but in June, when it’s 75 degrees and sunny and you’re heading out to Lake Michigan, what better way to start your vacation than dropping the top on that Mustang and enjoying the wind in your hair and the sound coming out of that exhaust pipe?
The Decline of the Drop Top
This is when the convertible began to symbolize freedom, fun, and leisure. Convertibles by the 1950s were everywhere again, and that was probably the high water mark of the convertible on American roads — the late 50s into the early 1960s. You could get them not just on expensive cars or on sports cars, but on family sedans, or even otherwise modestly priced compact cars.
However, in the 1970s, the convertible began its slow disappearing act. There have been some brief revivals, such as the 1982 Chrysler Lebaron and its close relative, the Dodge 400, which were the first American-made convertibles released since the 1976 Cadillac Eldorado. In recent years, the market has shrunk even further. In 2005, convertibles made up 2.1% of new car sales. That number fell to about 1.5% during the recession spurred by the financial crisis. As of 2021, they make up a mere 0.46% of sales. In other words, only one out of every 200 cars sold is a convertible now.
A Shift Towards Luxury
The convertible has also gone upscale. In 2011, the average convertible price was $45,000. By 2021, it was $67,000. In 2005, the top seven selling convertibles were the Ford Mustang, Chrysler PT Cruiser, Volkswagen Beetle, BMW 3 and 4 Series, Chevrolet Corvette, Chrysler Sebring, and the Mini Cooper. Apart from the BMWs, those cars were all mainstream, non-luxury vehicles, with some sports cars mixed in. However, in 2020, the top seven were the Mazda MX-5 Miata, 3-4 Series BMW, Ford Mustang, BMW Z4, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, Mercedes-Benz E-Class, and the Porsche 911. All of them are either luxury vehicles or sports cars. It’s kind of returning to its European roots.
The Reasons for the Decline
So what happened? It’s tough to say, but experts point to several likely reasons:
- Convertibles simply aren’t that practical. You don’t need a convertible. It’s something you buy if you can afford the luxury associated with it.
- The roof has to go somewhere, often the trunk. Millennials are overtaking Baby Boomers as the biggest cohort of car buyers and are reaching ages where they need cars with seating for several and enough storage. Perhaps that’s why the age group that drives convertibles skews towards the age of 55 and older.
- Cars have become more expensive, and buyers may not have the cash to buy a second car just for fun. Convertibles already are more expensive than their hardtop counterparts. The Ford Mustang hardtop starts at just over $27,000. The convertible starts at nearly $33,000. The Porsche 911 Carrera starts at just over $100,000, but the Cabriolet version (another name for convertible) is over $114,000. Some say the invention of unibody manufacturing makes building a convertible a bit more complicated. They have to be built out more in the doors and chassis to make up for the loss of structural strength. Their shrinking market share might actually be making convertibles less affordable. If automakers are going to offer convertibles, they have to make more per unit, and so we see kind of a chicken and egg situation: lower volumes necessitate higher prices, which necessitate lower volumes, and we continue to circle downward.
- Hardtop convertibles, which have become more common, are still more expensive and take up even more space in the vehicle. The standard Mazda MX-5 Miata comes only in a soft top convertible format for a starting price of about $26,000. But you can opt up for the MX-5 Miata RF, a retractable hardtop version that starts at just over $33,000. Apparently, some manufacturers have decided that retractable hardtops aren’t worth it. BMW ditched the retractable hardtop in favor of a traditional fabric top convertible for its 2021 4 Series coupe. Soft tops, commonly known as rag tops, are typically made in part out of cloth. They are less durable than a steel roof and easier to break into.
- The rise of sunroofs, especially the large panoramic ones seen on newer cars, may have made a convertible top even less appealing.
- Convertibles are rather unusual in the automotive industry in that their sales are highly seasonal. The selling season typically begins in March, and the peak months are April and May. So there is a short window for buying or selling a convertible. Of course, all car sales vary by season a bit, but not like that. So it’s a hard market to get the volume right. If you don’t have enough convertibles, you kind of miss the selling season. And if you build too many, you’ve got a difficult time trying to sell a convertible in the winter months.
- Finally, convertibles may be a casualty of the changing cultural role of the car in America. When they were at their high water mark in the 1950s and 60s, convertibles, and cars in general, became symbols of freedom, fun, and adventure. Today, many drivers, about two-thirds of them according to recent surveys, think of their cars primarily as appliances meant for commuting and running errands.
The Future of the Convertible
Some sporty American cars, such as the Mustang, Camaro, and Corvette, still have convertible versions. There are also small sports cars from Japanese makers, such as the MX-5 Miata and the Nissan 350Z Roadster. But buyers who want a new convertible might find that they need to go high-end. European brands like Porsche, Audi, Mercedes, and BMW all offer convertibles in soft top and, in some cases, hardtop varieties. Buyers priced out by European luxury prices might find themselves turning to the used market.
Auto industry analysts say that some hope for the convertible may lie in an unlikely place – the sport utility vehicle. Car makers have tried to bring convertibles into the compact crossover segment. Two notable examples are the Range Rover Evoque Convertible and the Nissan Murano Convertible. Some, like Johnny, believe that these two were just the early trendsetters and that there will actually be a convertible SUV segment. Johnny notes that the Jeep Wrangler is a twist on the traditional convertible. It can be driven as an open-air vehicle simply by removing the roof and doors. The Gladiator pickup truck, based on the Wrangler, is also capable of an open-air conversion. The Ford Bronco, perhaps one of the most anticipated vehicle debuts in recent years, also has a removable roof and doors. The GMC Hummer EV also has some removable panels, and that may be the kind of convertible we’re talking about in the future – an SUV where you have automakers like Toyota, Nissan, and Land Rover that, if they were to go back to their old-timey photos, would see that they had a lot of open top SUVs in their history, and they could bring those to market fairly easily.
Convertible cars are not completely gone yet. A lot of people are waiting for the Tesla Roadster to come back, and that will be an EV convertible, perhaps the first of its kind. We’ll see what else feeds it to market, but a lot of people are waiting for that, and that may be the kind of vehicle that could sort of generate enthusiasm once again for driving a convertible. A two-seat sports car is not an easy sell for the majority of buyers, but an automaker can make it work if enough consumers feel it will give them something many of them still want – fun.
