Amazon Q3: A Shocker For The Bears (NASDAQ:AMZN)

Amazon Q3: A Shocker For The Bears (NASDAQ:AMZN)


4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images

In February, I presented Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) as one of my favorite titles for 2023. Back then there was still a somewhat bearish sentiment on the stock due to a massive growth slowdown in

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023e

OCF

12.039

17.203

18.365

30.723

38.515

66.064

46.327

46.752

87.471

YoY Growth

76%

43%

7%

67%

25%

72%

-30%

1%

87%

Margin

11%

13%

10%

13%

14%

17%

10%

9%

15%

Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021
CAPEX3.2903.5624.6975.3126.7957.45911.06314.82412.08214.28815.74818.935
% YoY Growth6%10%40%42%107%109%136%179%78%92%42%28%
% of Revenue6%6%7%6%9%8%12%12%11%13%14%14%

Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023
CAPEX14.95115.72416.37816.60014.20711.45512.47911859
% YoY Growth24%10%4%-12%-10%-30%-25%-29%
% of Revenue13%13%13%11%11%9%9%7%

201920202021202220232024e2025e
OCF38.51566.06446.32746.75287.471108.907125.000
YoY Growth25%72%-30%1%87%25%15%
Margin14%17%10%9%15%17%18%
CAPEX16.86140.14161.05363.65350.00048.38250.000
% of Revenue6%10%13%12%9%8%7%
FCF21.65425.923– 14.726– 16.90137.47160.52575.000
Margin8%7%-3%-3%7%9%11%

2023e RevenueP/S MultipleFair Value 23
Online Stores229.3290,80183.463
Physical Stores19.7781,0019.778
Third-Party138.4943,00415.482
Subscription40.2214,00160.884
AWS91.0538,00728.424
Advertising46.7526,50303.888
Others4.8472,009.694
Total570.4743,191.821.613



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