Post-Trump Election: A New Dawn for UK-EU Relations?
The recent U.S. election has sent ripples across the Atlantic, profoundly impacting the relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. A new survey from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) reveals a significant shift in public opinion, with majorities in both the UK and several key EU nations favoring closer collaboration. This comes as UK and EU leaders actively seek to reset their relationship in anticipation of President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the potential ramifications of his policies on international trade and alliances. The prospect of renewed **transatlantic tensions**, coupled with the potential for **increased U.S. protectionism**, is pushing the UK and EU toward unprecedented levels of cooperation.
Key Takeaways: A Shifting Geopolitical Landscape
- A significant majority of Britons (55%) now favor realignment with the EU, prioritizing stronger EU ties over closer relations with the U.S. under a second Trump presidency.
- EU nations, particularly Germany and Poland, also show strong support for closer UK-EU ties post-election, signaling a willingness to overcome past Brexit divisions.
- Both the UK and EU express a desire for increased cooperation on trade and security, suggesting a potential for mutual benefit despite past disagreements.
- President-elect Trump’s return and potential imposition of tariffs creates a “binary” choice for the UK and EU, pushing them to seek closer collaboration to mitigate potential economic risks.
- The possibility of free movement of people being discussed as a bargaining chip suggests a willingness on both sides to compromise on long-standing points of contention for more substantial economic and security unification.
A New Era of Cooperation: The ECFR Survey
The ECFR survey, conducted across the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain, polled over 9,000 individuals. The results offer a stark contrast to the prevailing sentiment immediately following the 2020 Brexit vote. The study highlights a widespread desire, on both sides of the English Channel, to mend fences and engage in closer collaboration. **This shift in public opinion** mirrors the actions of UK and EU leaders, who appear ready to re-engage on a number of critical fronts. For instance, the recent meeting between UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves and her EU counterparts marks an important first step. This meeting, described as the **first held since the UK officially left the EU in 2020**, underscores a desire for revitalized relations.
The Sentiment of Cooperation
The survey reveals a particular focus on strengthening ties in areas of mutual interest. Both the UK and EU respondents identified trade, security, and economic prosperity as key priorities. **The appetite for cooperation extends to the sensitive issue of migration**, with the prospect of greater integration being considered alongside strengthening economic partnerships. Notably, EU respondents demonstrated a willingness to grant the UK special access to the EU single market and participation in research programs in exchange for enhanced security cooperation. This represents a significant concession, reflecting a pragmatic shift in the EU’s approach to post-Brexit relations with the UK.
Trump’s Shadow: The Threat of Tariffs and the “Binary Choice”
The re-election of President-elect Trump introduces a new layer of complexity into the UK-EU dynamic. His previous warnings of new tariffs to address trade imbalances, especially with significant trade partners like the EU, have instilled unease. While the UK has a smaller trade imbalance with the U.S., reducing the immediate threat, the uncertainty associated with Trump’s approach looms large. The fear of being forced to choose between the U.S. and the EU is a significant factor driving this renewed consideration of a better relationship with the EU from Britain’s point of view.
Navigating the Transatlantic Tightrope
Helle Thorning-Schmidt, former Prime Minister of Denmark and an ECFR board trustee, articulates the complex challenge. While advocating for maintaining “as close a relationship with the U.S. as possible,” she acknowledges the potential for difficult choices. **”If there are tariffs coming our way, do we retaliate? Is that an answer?”** she questions, highlighting the potential for trade disputes to further strain relations. The possibility of being forced to align with U.S. policy on issues like China also presents a “binary choice,” compelling both the UK and the EU to seek alternative paths to minimize dependence on strained relations with the United States.
Although a reset in the UK’s relationship with the EU is potentially driven by the threat of a poor relationship with America, Thorning-Schmidt suggests that the current geopolitical situation could actually provide leverage for the UK to negotiate additional concessions from the EU. She suggests that this opportunity arises because both sides are seeking a way to improve their positions in the face of potential transatlantic tensions and a newly strengthened desire for closer relations to support national interests.
A New Beginning? Implications for the Future
The ECFR survey’s findings, coupled with the actions of both UK and EU leaders, suggest a potential turning point in post-Brexit relations. The shared concern over potential negative economic consequences, alongside a desire for greater security collaboration, has created common ground and a willingness to overcome past obstacles. The willingness on both the UK and EU side to potentially compromise on things like freedom of movement of people and potentially access to the single market for the UK is significant. It shows a clear willingness to cooperate with one another more.
Challenges Remain
However, challenges remain. The potential for trade disputes with the U.S. under a Trump administration could require difficult decisions— the possibility of choosing between closer alignment with the U.S. or prioritizing cooperation with the EU. **The desire for a reset does not guarantee immediate or easily agreed-upon solutions.** Further negotiations will be necessary to translate these shifting public sentiments and political initiatives into tangible agreements on trade, security, and other critical areas. The outcome of these negotiations remains uncertain.
The future of UK-EU relations will depend on the ability of both sides to navigate the complexities of potential transatlantic tensions. The ECFR survey, however, provides a glimpse of a possible future where a shared interest in mitigating the risks and uncertainties associated with a Trump presidency could lead to a stronger, more collaborative partnership between the UK and the EU, a partnership born from the anxieties associated with a renewed trade war.
