stock is above $200 as the EV maker gets ready to report second-quarter deliveries this week.
Itâs a stock-moving event, but investors should consider whether the market has already moved on. Not even a bearish Wall Street report can knock down shares significantly.
Tesla typically reports global delivery results on the second day of a new quarter. For the second quarter, the most current Wall Street estimates point to about 420,000 cars delivered, down from some 466,000 delivered in the second quarter of 2023. Deliveries likely fell year over year for the second consecutive quarter.
Timing varies, but lately, Tesla has been reporting quarterly numbers at about 9 a.m. Eastern time.
Despite the pending news, Tesla shares have moved up about 10% over the past two weeks. Shares were up 5.6% in early trading Monday at $208.97, while the
and
were flat and up 0.2%, respectively.
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Shares are on pace for their highest close since Jan. 24, 2024, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The stock has now risen for five consecutive days.
Shares were rising despite a bearish report from Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan. He wrote Monday that 2024 delivery estimates for Tesla are too high. He expects about 1.6 million cars sold this year, while the Wall Street consensus compiled by FactSet is for about 1.8 million units.
Slowing demand raises the risk of that Tesla will keep cuting prices, he said.
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Langan rates shares Sell and has a $120 price target for Tesla stock.
The recent price action, and the Monday bounce, tell investors that, to some extent, other factors are more important right now.
One factor is Teslaâs Aug. 8 robotaxi event, where the company will detail plans to capitalize on its self-driving software and technology. CEO Elon Musk has called self-driving cars a multitrillion-dollar opportunity which, based on recent trading, has excited investors.
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âWe believe the August 8th robotaxi day will be a key historical moment for the Tesla story that we see as a near-term catalyst,â wrote Wedbush analyst Dan Ives in a Friday report. âUltimately the key to reaching a $1 trillion-plus valuation is the autonomous [driving] vision taking hold for Tesla, which appears to be turning a corner with this latest FSD [version] and now China FSD testing underway.â
FSD is short for full self-driving, Teslaâs highest-level driver assistance product.
Ives rates Tesla shares Buy and has a $275 price target for the stock. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas rates shares Buy and has a $310 price target. He is excited about the potential of Teslaâs nascent robot business. Tesla is developing a labor-saving robot it trains using artificial intelligence-based computing.
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âOur thesis on Tesla is that it is both an auto stock plus an energy, A.I./robotics company,â wrote Jonas in a recent report. âIn fact, our valuation of the core auto business ($67/share) represents just about 20% of our $310 price target.â
Although both Ives and Jonas are looking beyond second-quarter numbers, the delivery result will still matter, to some extent. Options markets imply shares will move 5%, up or down, following Teslaâs delivery report. Shares have moved an average of about 3%, up or down, following the past four reports. They dropped almost 5% after Tesla reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter deliveries.
The second-quarter earnings report comes a few weeks after the delivery news. It has even more potential to move the stock. Tesla shares have moved an average of 11%, up or down, following the past four quarterly reports.
As of the close on Friday, shares were down 20% so far this year while the
was up about 18%. Slowing sales growth and falling earnings estimates have weighed on investor sentiment.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com